Researchers at the University of Iowa have a glum predication for Warner Bros. Using an analytical system of their own creation, the researchers determined that Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice has only a 32 percent chance of turning a profit.
The system was created by Kang Zhao, a professor of management sciences at the University. His system takes into account various factors in a film’s success, including the talent involved, plot, genre, and release date.
Those factors were then plugged into a machine-learning, data-based algorithm for analysis, which was used on every film released in the United States from 2000 through 2010 for fine-tuning.
The factors found to most strongly correspond to profitability were an established work history between directors and cast, the average gross of the director’s previous films, a winter release, a cast with a profitable work history, and an annual profit percentage by genre.
The factors correlating to weakest profitability were an R-rating, drama genre, war or spy films, a plot about music, and foreign films.
Turning to unreleased 2016 films, the researchers have tested several upcoming films, including Batman v. Superman. Warcraft has a slightly better outlook, with a 39 percent chance at profitability, and Zootopia is actually looking pretty good at 55 percent.