Man of Steel Projected to Be 2013's #2 Movie By Sunday

Man of Steel

is expected to be the #2 movie of 2013 by the end of the weekend, according to various estimates from box office analysts. At the low end of projections, Box Office Mojo expects Man of Steel to bring in $20 million at the domestic box office this weekend--enough to power if past Fast & Furious 6 and Oz the Great and Powerful to become the second-highest-grossing film of 2013. More optimistic projections at Deadline and elsewhere have the movie making upwards of $25 million. The top domestic (and worldwide) grosser of the year is, of course, Iron Man 3--which Man of Steel or anything else on tap for this summer is unlikely to touch, barring a Hunger Games-level shocker. Iron Man 3 might be out of the top ten and building revenue very slowly at this point, but it's already past $400 million at the domestic box office--$348 million of which it made in its first week of release, as compared to an anticipated $245-$255 million for Man of Steel. Many analysts thought that Man of Steel wouldn't cross the $300 million threshold at the domestic box office--a number that now seems virtually guaranteed.  One noted prognosticator even predicted that the film would make $200 million--which would be less than movies like The Hangover Part III, which underperformed badly and only made $111 million (compared to upwards of $200 million for each of the first two installments in the franchise). Adjusted for ticket price inflation, Superman: The Movie is still the biggest moneymaker in the Superman franchise, although the movie grossed only $134 million in real dollars. Iron Man 3 is the highest-grossing of the series and second-best outing ever for Marvel Studios (it's the fourth-best for a superhero film, behind The Avengers, The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises). ADDENDUM: Because we've had a number of people ask us "but what about Thor: The Dark World?", we've added this little bit to explain why none of the experts have projected Thor to finish in the top three. No disrespect to the film, we're just working from the assumptions we have. The last Thor movie made $181 million at the domestic box office--for context, that's $20 million less than Superman Returns, which came out five years earlier when there was no 3D. Compare that to Iron Man 2, which made $312 million--and you'd realize that Thor would have to double its business to do Man of Steel numbers, whereas Iron Man 3 (with a ton of hype, Downey doing his farewell tour and all that) increased by about 25% over its previous outing. I expect Thor to do well but it's almost impossible to imagine it doing Iron Man-style numbers. Doubling your previous outing is hardly impossible; after all, The Dark Knight made more than $525 million, which was an increase over about $200 million for Batman Begins. But it's incredibly uncommon and I think any serious look at those numbers can assume that The Dark Knight is an outlier. For that to occur would fall into the exception we allowed above for a "Hunger Games-level shocker." Batman was also a known commodity, which plays into it. Going from the first to the second installment, that kind of jump is very rare--which is nominally what Batman did but many moviegoers still very clearly remembered the first four films, so whether it's entirely accurate to treat The Dark Knight like a second  movie is up for debate.