Unlike its predecessor in Black Widow, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings is on a train that’ll only stop at theaters in September. Though consumer confidence has some studios concerned about their respective fall release slates, Disney is keeping the Simu Liu-led film on its September 3rd date. That means now that we’re officially under a month away, box officer insiders have started speculating where the film could fall when the box office begins to make its tallies over Labor Day weekend.
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According to the box office trackers at BoxOffice Pro, Shang-Chi is gearing up to bring in between $35 million to $55 million domestically over the course of its opening weekend. Even at the highest end of that range, Shang-Chi would still fall $30.37 million short of the $80 million Black Widow managed to rake in over its opening weekend. It would, however, be good enough to be the third-highest opening of the pandemic behind Black Widow and F9 ($70.04 million).
“As Disney’s first theatrically exclusive release of a tentpole film during the late pandemic and mid-vaccine era, this will be a true stress test of where moviegoing sentiment and comfort levels are at heading into the fall season,” BoxOffice Pro’s Shawn Robbins writes in his analysis. “Recent moves to mandate vaccination passes in theaters across markets like New York City and Los Angeles could play an integral role in trends throughout the weeks ahead, potentially helping vaccinated moviegoers feel more safe to return.”
During Disney’s latest investor call on Friday, Disney chief Bob Chapek doubled down on Shang-Chi’s theater exclusivity, saying it will be an interesting “experiment” to watch unfold with a reduced theatrical window. The Mouse struck a deal with exhibitors that will see the movie exclusively available in theaters for 45 days before it can head to on-demand or streaming services.
Shang-Chi and The Legend of The Ten Rings is directed by Destin Daniel Cretton and produced by Kevin Feige and Jonathan Schwartz, with Louis D’Esposito, Victoria Alonso, and Charles Newirth serving as executive producers. David Callaham & Destin Daniel Cretton & Andrew Lanham wrote the screenplay for the film, which is currently set for release on September 3rd.
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