Predator: Badlands Box Office Projections Lower Than Disney’s Sci-Fi Franchise Flop

Over the past few years, the Predator franchise has experienced a resurgence, with Prey and Predator: Killer of Killers earning widespread critical praise. Both of those films were also hits with audiences, but it’s important to keep in mind they went straight to streaming. While it’s great that Predator gained a lot of traction with Hulu subscribers, the property is about to face an even greater test this weekend with the release of Predator: Badlands. This is the first new Predator movie to open in theaters in seven years, hoping to kick start a new era that could potentially culminate with a major Alien crossover. In order for the series to keep going, Badlands needs to be financially successful, and now box office projections are in.

According to Deadline, Predator: Badlands is estimated to earn around $25 million domestically over its first three days, which would arguably be a mixed result. On one hand, that figure would be the second-biggest opening for a Predator movie of all time (behind only Alien vs. Predator‘s $38.2 million). However, it’s also well below the debut of Tron: Ares ($33.2 million), Disney’s sci-fi flop that’s on track to lose $100 million.

Can Predator: Badlands Exceed Box Office Projections?

After a lackluster October that was the worst in 27 years (excluding 2020), theater owners are hoping things will turn around this month. As the industry waits for Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 to dominate the Thanksgiving window, many are curious to see how some high-profile genre films will fare in the weeks leading up to the holiday. Predator has never been the biggest box office draw, but it’s still a recognizable brand that’s gone through a renaissance, meaning Predator: Badlands is opening with a fair amount of buzz. With that in mind, it’s disappointing to see it’s projected for a low opening, but there are reasons to be optimistic about the film’s box office prospects.

This year, there have been several films that exceeded their initial expectations and performed better than expected. The horror genre is where this was most prevalent (see: The Conjuring: Last Rite‘s record-breaking opening), but the likes of Superman and The Fantastic Four: First Steps also pulled this feat off. Most of the films that beat their projections received positive reviews and got a boost from the word of mouth. Predator: Badlands boasts a very impressive Rotten Tomatoes score, so it’s doing very well on that front. Similar to director Dan Trachtenberg’s previous two Predator movies, Badlands has proven to be well-received.

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Predator: Badlands also isn’t facing much in the way of competition. None of the October holdovers pose a threat, and there aren’t any other high-profile titles opening. The other new arrivals this week (Christy, Die My Love, Sarah’s Oil) are counterprogramming options for older moviegoers. With Tron: Ares faltering, Predator: Badlands fills a void in the marketplace, serving as the go-to option for pure cinematic spectacle. The positive reviews have praised the film’s action scenes (eschewing any concerns about its PG-13 rating), so it sounds like it’s a must-see on the big screen.

Something else to keep in mind is that whether or not Predator: Badlands goes down as a box office success will depend greatly on its production budget. One of the reasons why Tron: Ares lost so much money is because it cost between $180-220 million to make. Predator: Badlands clearly wasn’t made for a shoestring budget, but it still should be cheaper than Ares. The smaller a production budget is, the greater the chance a film has at turning a profit. So even if Badlands can’t surpass the opening of Ares, it wouldn’t be a death blow.

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