Black Widow is shaping up to be the blockbuster that'll set the box office back on track. Now just over two weeks from release, some industry insiders are projecting the Cate Shortland film will gross between $65 million - $90 million in its first weekend in theaters. Those figures come from Box Office Pro's Shawn Robbins, an analyst who suggests the Marvel Studios blockbuster — the first in two years from the outfit — could gross upwards of $225M globally in addition to its $65M+ domestic haul.
Even at the lower end of the range, a $65M opening for Black Widow would make it the biggest box office weekend since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker in December 2019. The biggest opening week so far in 2021 is Paramount's A Quiet Place Part II, which raked in $47.5M domestically in its opening bout.
"That prediction is so far backed up by online trends. Black Widow‘s official Marvel Entertainment trailer page on YouTube has generated 14 million views from just the most recent spot released in early April 2021, in addition to the 29 million views of its first trailer released before lockdown on March 9, 2020," Robbins offers in his analysis. "Social media engagement overall is trending on par with the likes of previous “solo” Marvel films like Doctor Strange, Thor: Ragnarok, and Ant-Man and the Wasp."
Despite $65M being the gold standard for Hollywood franchises, that total would make Black Widow the third-smallest opening weekend in the entire MCU, only ahead of Ant-Man ($57.23M) and The Incredible Hulk ($55.41M). An opening around $90M would place the Scarlett Johansson vehicle between Spider-Man: Far From Home ($92.58M) and Thor: The Dark World ($85.74M).
Black Widow is now set to hit theaters and Disney+ on July 9th. If you haven't signed up for Disney+ yet, you can try it out here.
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