Disney’s Live-Action Moana Is Already Underperforming & Could Struggle to Top Supergirl’s Opening Weekend Box Office

The world’s biggest film studios can’t seem to catch a break. Despite increasing anxiety over finding a formula for the next blockbuster tentpole genre, major hitters like DC Studios and Disney are seeing reliable cash cows like superhero epics and family releases fail to meet revenue goals. It’s getting so a studio executive can’t count on a nice reasonable ten-digit profit anymore. What’s an Executive Vice President of Media Relations to do?

Moana and Supergirl are the latest casualties of a pervasive market correction across pop media. Pre-release estimates expected Supergirl to pull down about $50 million in its first weekend. The real number was $37 million. Moana was projected to do $60 million by Monday. Based on Friday receipts and reliable projections, it will be lucky to make $50 million. So, what gives? People still like popcorn and explosions. Parents still need safe, fun places to take their kids. Why are formerly reliable genres suddenly uncertain, and how will that change the geek culture landscape in the future?

Both Supergirl and Moana Bet Big, Missed Big – But May Still Have a Future

It’s tempting to lump apparently similar circumstances into a single consistent trend. It’s human nature to appreciate a simple explanation for a complex thing. Disney live-actions have drawn heated fan backlash and lukewarm critical response – that explains Moana. Non-MCU superhero films have been dismissed as cash-grab copycats – thus Supergirl. And there are always voices from the sadder corners of the Internet crowing over bad outcomes for anything featuring women or people of color.

None of that checks out. Fans beat the doors down for Jungle Book, Lion King, and Lilo and Stitch. All three movies were live-action. All had leading women and/or stars of color. Each brought in better than $1 billion in global revenue, a number far in excess of their low-nine-figure budgets. The non-MCU superhero curse goes down just as quickly: Aquaman made an absurd amount of money. So did fellow big names like Superman and The Batman and more niche projects like Shazam and the 2016 Suicide Squad.

Yet the list of failures is just as long. The Flash. Dumbo. Joker: Folie a Deux, God help us all. None of those films found a market. All got reviews that were, putting it politely, polarized. And by certain metrics, Moana and particularly Supergirl are actually doing worse than some of those films. What’s the secret?

Audience Buy-In Is Harder In Theaters, Easy at Home

In many cases, underwhelming performance in a genre film is a simple case of audience apathy. No one bothered to sell the audience on Ezra Miller’s Flash or explain why Tim Burton was adapting an elephant movie released before World War II. Despite name recognition, Supergirl is a pretty niche character outside comic-fan circles: how many non-geeks could have answered the question “Who is Kara Zor-El?” before Superman dropped? It’s a recurring problem.

Moana seems to have the opposite issue. The film’s negative reviews question its originality, seeing it as a carbon copy of the animated original. Returning cast, notably The Rock reprising Maui (Could someone put this man in a successful film, please?) would seem to exacerbate that problem – if it’s a problem.

“Carbon copy” is just a mean way of saying “audience buy-in.” That may be Moana‘s way out. Kids’ movies do well in theaters but better at home, where dismissive reviews hold less sway than the vast buying power of parents who love kids who love princesses. Superman endured a less extreme version of the same arc, doing passably in theaters but finding a dedicated fanbase later. With a little luck – and respect for the audience – his cousin may manage the same feat.

What’s your favorite live-action remake of a classic? Least favorite? Leave a comment below and join the conversation now in the ComicBook Forum!

7 Times Disney’s Live-Action Remakes Were Perfectly Cast