Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Projections Below No Way Home (But Still Year’s Best)

July 10, 2026, 11:41am

While indie horror movies Obsession and Backrooms have reigned supreme at the summer box office this year, major studio tentpoles have had their fair share of struggles. Toy Story 5 has been a hit as expected (recently passing $800 million worldwide), but several others have underperformed to varying degrees. Even Minions & Monsters, which won’t be a bomb, failed to meet its initial projections. Fortunately for theater owners, there are some boons on the way as the season draws to a close. Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is going to be a huge draw, and Marvel’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day will be even bigger if the estimates are any indication.

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According to Deadline, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is projected to earn between $180-190 million domestically in its opening weekend. While that wouldn’t be enough to top the all-time franchise record held by 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260.1 million), it would still be the highest opening of the year so far. Right now, Toy Story 5 has 2026’s biggest debut ($159.6 million).

Can Spider-Man: Brand New Day Exceed Its Box Office Projections?

In late June, when it was reported that Brand New Day had already earned $40 million domestically just from ticket pre-sales, the indication was that the opening weekend could be as high as $250 million, putting it in range of No Way Home‘s record. With that in mind, some could find it a bit surprising to see the current estimates be as “low” as $180 million instead. In these cases, it’s important to keep in mind that box office projections are not an exact science. There are a lot of moving parts that influence tracking statistics, leading to scenarios where movies can exceed projections or fall short of them. It was only a couple of weeks ago Supergirl opened well below the original soft estimates of $50+ million.

We’re still three weeks away from Brand New Day‘s premiere, so a lot can change between now and then. It’s still too early for there to be social media reactions or full written reviews, so we have no idea what kind of word of mouth Brand New Day will generate. Based on the box office tracking, it looks like this film will be critic-proof (at least in its opening weekend), but a positive reception certainly wouldn’t hurt its prospects. If the main takeaway is that Brand New Day is one of the best films of Marvel’s Multiverse Saga, that could help push the film to a $200+ million debut at least. Die-hard Marvel fans are going to show up regardless, but strong buzz will bring casual viewers out in full force.

There are reasons why Brand New Day may not outperform its projections, however. While the film will be playing in many premium large formats, it will be missing out on those all-important IMAX ticket sales. The Odyssey secured a three-week run, so Brand New Day won’t be able to benefit from IMAX screenings in its opening weekend, which is notable. When Project Hail Mary posted its record-breaking debut earlier this year, it was reported that 22% of the ticket sales were for IMAX showings alone, a sizable chunk. Brand New Day is obviously going to be just fine without IMAX, but the lack of those screenings could prevent it from reaching the $200 million plateau. How well The Odyssey holds could also have some influence on Brand New Day‘s opening; perhaps some casual viewers will opt for The Odyssey in its third week to avoid the Spider-Man crowds and catch Brand New Day at a later date.

As long as Brand New Day performs in line with its estimates, it will go down as a win for Marvel. The Marvel Cinematic Universe could use some good news at the box office after having a relatively down year in 2025 (by the MCU’s lofty standards, anyway). More and more, there are signs that comic book movies are no longer the automatic draw they were during the genre’s heyday in the 2010s. However, Spider-Man has always been a character immune to shifting box office trends. He’s Marvel’s most popular superhero, and a film starring him is a guaranteed blockbuster regardless of where audience tastes lie at a given moment. Brand New Day will be one of the year’s biggest films.

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