Six years ago, The Mandalorian breathed new life into Star Wars just at the moment all seemed lost. Lucasfilm had rather hoped the Star Wars sequel trilogy would end on a high note, but that was not the case. 2019’s The Rise of Skywalker was a box office success, grossing $1.077 billion worldwide, but it didn’t exactly meet popular and critical acclaim; its Rotten Tomatoes critic score, of just 51%, makes it the lowest-ranked live-action Star Wars movie of all time.
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Fortunately for Lucasfilm, the studio was already in the process of pivoting to the small screen. Disney mandates required every studio to focus on content for the Disney+ streaming service, which launched six years ago today. Lucasfilm became a powerful symbol for the new streamer, with the first episode of The Mandalorian premiering as part of the launch. What’s more, it was a fantastic success.
Nobody Realized How Good The Mandalorian Would Be
Created by Jon Favreau, The Mandalorian‘s genius lay in the fact nobody really knew what was coming. Trailers had touted this as an action adventure story featuring a solo bounty hunter deliberately evocative of Boba Fett, but The Mandalorian episode 1 shocked viewers when it introduced Grogu (instantly christened “Baby Yoda” by the internet). Disney had deliberately kept Baby Yoda secret, a decision that is estimated to have cost $2.7 million worth of merchandise sales due to not having anything ready in time to capitalize on his popularity.
Disney may have missed out on merchandise rights in the short term, but the unexpected delight meant The Mandalorian was an instant hit for Disney+; new subscriber numbers immediately outpacing all estimates. The timing couldn’t have been better for Lucasfilm, with the studio doubling down on a range of live-action Star Wars TV shows. The Mandalorian season 2 was already in production, and released in October 2020. The Disney+ era of Star Wars was secured.
The Disney+ Star Wars Era Hasn’t Been a Success
It all began so well. The Mandalorian‘s first two seasons are unmissable, with The Mandalorian season 2’s ending even featuring another surprise in Mark Hamill’s Luke Skywalker. Looking back, though, Lucasfilm peaked too soon; the shows that followed released to diminishing returns, with even The Mandalorian season 3 coming in for heavy criticism due to deviating from the core formula too much. The Acolyte became the first Star Wars Disney+ TV show to be officially canceled, leaving behind a divided fanbase that is still recovering a year later.
There have been other successes, of course; Tony Gilroy’s Andor is a popular and critically acclaimed hit, with season 2 winning five coveted Emmy Awards. But Andor‘s two seasons had an eye-watering budget of over $650 million, which is simply unsustainable now the streaming boom has come to an end. According to Gilroy, “streaming is dead” – and, naturally, that means Lucasfilm is under orders to ramp up film production again. Only one live-action TV show is known to be in the works right now, Ahsoka season 2, while Star Wars is due to return to theaters next May.
The Mandalorian is Bringing Star Wars Back to Theaters
Pedro Pascal’s Din Djarin and his ward Grogu are leading the charge back to the big screen. Little is known about the film’s plot right now; the first trailer for The Mandalorian and Grogu deliberately concealed more than it revealed. What does seem certain, though, is that it has been adapted from Favreau’s season 4 plans. It’s an amusing inversion, given several of Lucasfilm’s Disney+ TV shows were originally pitched as movies.
Unfortunately, the signs currently don’t look good for The Mandalorian and Grogu. The film is releasing at a time when interest in Star Wars is lower than ever before, and Google Trends data shows only the slightest increase generated by the trailer drop. Over on YouTube, the official Star Wars account’s copy of the trailer has only been watched 9.7 million times in its first month (contrast this with the trailer for Percy Jackson season 2, where the Disney Plus and Hulu trailer has been watched 15 million times in its first six days).
The Mandalorian and Grogu faces two major problems. The Mandalorian is now a known commodity, meaning it’s very hard to surprise viewers; indeed, that first trailer goes to some lengths to reassure critics that there’s been a reset to staples of the first two seasons, with Lucasfilm learning from the season 3 stumbles. Making matters worse, those more recent stumbles have almost certainly damaged the brand, meaning the pressure is on for this movie to fix things. Reaction to that first trailer suggests it has a long way to go to win audiences back.
Can The Mandalorian and Grogu revive Star Wars’ fortunes? Din Djarin and Grogu pulled it off once, but the signs don’t look good that history will repeat itself. Only a strong marketing push, and hopefully some surprises kept back for the film’s release, can save the day. Time will tell whether this proves to be a revival of Star Wars’ fortunes, or simply just another movie on the way to a bigger relaunch with 2027’s Star Wars: Starfighter.
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