Brave New World Won’t Be the Lowest-Grossing Captain America Movie

Four weeks into its theatrical run, it’s official that Captain America: Brave New World will not be the lowest-grossing installment of the Captain America franchise. This weekend, the latest entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is projected to earn around $8.7 million domestically, which would increase its U.S. total to about $177 million. Captain America: The First Avenger, which debuted back in 2011, finished its Stateside run with $176.6 million. Even if Brave New World doesn’t top The First Avenger‘s haul in this particular weekend (these are estimates that could fluctuate), it’s all but a guarantee it will earn more by the time its run is done.

After retaining the top spot on the box office charts for three consecutive weekends, Captain America: Brave New World slid to second place this weekend. Coming in first is director Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17; the sci-fi film starring Robert Pattinson is poised to earn between $18-20 million domestically in its opening, according to The Hollywood Reporter.

Premiering over Presidents’ Day weekend, Captain America: Brave New World got off to a solid — if somewhat soft — debut of $100 million over the extended holiday frame. Unfortunately for Marvel and Disney, the film did not have strong legs. Brave New World fell 68% in its second weekend, marking one of the steepest drops in MCU history. Only infamous Marvel flops Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and The Marvels had larger declines in their second weekends.

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Captain America: Brave New World was plagued by mixed reception, earning uneven reviews due to what many perceived to be flat storytelling. Its Rotten Tomatoes critics score is the lowest of the four Captain America films by far, illustrating there was not much widespread enthusiasm for the project. Additionally, Brave New World made unwanted headlines after reports came out detailing the movie’s troubled production.

Thanks to a production budget of around $180 million, Brave New World should be able to avoid the same fates as Quantumania and The Marvels. It was not as expensive as some of Marvel’s other recent offerings, so it has a clearer path to turning a profit. But that won’t be much of a solace for Disney and Marvel; The First Avenger was released in the MCU’s infancy, a time before the franchise became one of the dominant forces in pop culture. That it’s taken this long for Brave New World to clear The First Avenger on the box office charts is not a great sign as Marvel builds towards the conclusion of the Multiverse Saga. Any hopes of Brave New World coming close to the numbers posted by The Winter Soldier ($259.7 million domestic) or Civil War ($408 million domestic) have long been dashed.

It’ll be interesting to see if Brave New World‘s performance has any impact on the development of future Captain America sequels. A fifth Cap movie hasn’t been announced, but Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson is going to be a significant part of the franchise moving forward, serving as the leader for the next iteration of the Avengers. While Brave New World has its fair share of issues, most are in agreement that Mackie’s performance is a highlight, so perhaps there’s still potential for him to headline another solo outing down the line. With a stronger script, Captain America 5 could be a solid box office hit — particularly if Mackie is a standout in Avengers: Doomsday and Secret Wars.