James Cameron Confirms One Story Detail for Avatar 4, But Fans Won’t Like His Warning

With a pair of $2 billion installments under its belt, the Avatar franchise is showing no signs of slowing down. This December sees the release of Avatar: Fire and Ash, which could very well become the highest-grossing film of the year. After that, there are plans in place for two more entries, as Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 have have already been dated to premiere in 2029 and 2031, respectively, marking the end of what will be a 22-year journey for director James Cameron. Based on that release schedule, it’d be reasonable for fans to assume that there’s a start date in mind for Avatar 4 production so the next films remain on track. However, Cameron has some interesting comments regarding that.

In a video for Vanity Fair reflecting on his career, Cameron revealed that he filmed some material for Avatar 4 during production on Avatar: The Way of Water and Fire and Ash. “All the characters jump forward in age about eight years between the end of 3 and the start of 4,” he said. “So we knew the kids wouldn’t be kids anymore when we got back around to shooting [4] … we don’t even know when we’re gonna shoot those. We gotta make some money on 3 first.”

Could the Next Avatar Sequels Be Delayed?

On the surface, Cameron has no reason to worry about whether or not Avatar: Fire and Ash will make money. The franchise’s first two movies are members of the rare $2 billion box office club, and while projections aren’t in for Fire and Ash yet, it stands reason to believe it will perform similarly to its predecessors. However, Cameron’s comments have more nuance to them. In the past, he’s specifically mentioned the “profit margin” and wondered if he’ll have to take time to figure out how to cut costs for subsequent installments. The Avatar films are very expensive endeavors, and any dip in box office grosses could have an impact on its profits. Fire and Ash shouldn’t be in any danger of bombing, but one shouldn’t just assume a $2 billion haul (even with Cameron).

Unsurprisingly, considering Cameron’s interests in pushing the boundaries of moviemaking technology, the Avatar movies take a long time to film. For context, The Way of Water and Fire and Ash were shot back to back, a process that started in 2017 and ended in 2020 (filming was also delayed for a period due to the COVID-19 pandemic). It’s unknown if Cameron intends to shoot Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 together as well, but principal photography and performance capture for even one film would take a while. If Avatar 4 is going to stay in its 2029 slot, production would need to start sooner rather than later — especially since there will be extensive post-production work to bring the world of Pandora and its characters to life.

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Avatar 4 isn’t in any danger of being cancelled, but it’s smart that Cameron doesn’t have anything set in stone right now. For starters, he could just want a break from Avatar and make another film as a palate cleanser before coming back. As committed as Cameron is to the Avatar franchise, he also has other projects in development he’d be interested in making (like Ghosts of Hiroshima). It’s also sound from a business perspective to see if there’s a way to make future Avatar films more effectively. Cameron is right when he says production budgets have spiraled out of control; studios are looking for ways to trim back costs on franchise installments, so even though Avatar is one of one in terms of box office performance, there’s no reason why Cameron and Co. can’t scale back as well. If nothing else, that’ll make profit margins increase.

There was an infamously long 13-year wait between Avatar and The Way of Water, so Cameron has already illustrated he’ll take all the time he needs to properly realize his vision. If he feels it’s necessary to put Avatar on hiatus for a bit before making the fourth film, he’s earned the right to do so. Taking some time off would also give Cameron and his team an opportunity to iron out any kinks in the scripts, perhaps making changes based on audience response and feedback to the other films. So there are multiple reasons to hit the pause button and not just rush ahead into Avatar 4. Disney and 20th Century Studios would rather the movie come out sooner than later, but that’ll be Cameron’s call.

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