After an inflated budget and multiple delays were taken into account, it started to become obvious a while ago that Kraven the Hunter was going to have a hard time reaching profitability at the box office. But, once the final predictions started rolling in the week of release, the writing was written on the wall in permanent ink: Kraven would not be the savior Sony’s Spider-Man Universe needed. Specifically, the movie’s final projections had it opening even lower than Madame Web, which debuted to one of the lowest three-day grosses in superhero cinema history with a meager $15.3 million.
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And with Kraven, Sony’s Spider-Man Universe hit a new low. The film opened to a disastrous $11 million. It’s become clear to Kraven‘s studio that these SSU films’ failures did not just come down to superhero fatigue. Audiences have caught on that these Spidey spinoffs were lackluster at best, and if someone is going to spend bare minimum ten dollars on a ticket, lackluster just isn’t enough. But even with the dismal box office performance, it’s still worth asking: could there still be a Kraven 2?
What Has It Taken for a SSU Film to Get a Sequel?
The SSU is no stranger to a sequel. Venom got two sequels because the first film was a smash hit. Heck, even Venom: Let There Be Carnage turned a profit and that was a COVID-era release. But even that IP started to get sluggish on its way out. Venom: The Last Dance opened to just over $51 million, much lower than both Venom‘s $80.3 million and Let There Be Carnage‘s $90 million. On the upside, it had greater longevity to the tune of a final domestic tally about 2.73 times its opening weekend compared to the first film’s 2.66 and the second’s 2.37.
Yet, while the Venom franchise saw success, that multiple is of little solace considering The Last Dance had a budget of $120 and only pulled in $140 domestic. The first two films carried a price tag of about $110 million, and that’s the low-end estimate for Kraven‘s budget. On the high end? $130 million. Kraven‘s $11 million opening makes The Last Dance look like Avatar or Titanic. To put it another way, Kraven the Hunter is without a doubt a one-and-done simply because the numbers don’t add up to make a second film worth Sony’s while.
[RELATED: Sony’s Marvel Spin-Off Films Are Done (but Spider-Man Will Continue)]
What Will Kraven the Hunter’s Final Box Office Tally Look Like?
Now that we’ve compared Kraven to SSU’s success story, what about its other failures? In the two years since its release, Morbius‘ performance has started to look a little better in hindsight. It had the lowest price tag of any SSU movie (at most $83 million) and opened to $39 million. Sure, it then plummeted, topping out at $78.9 million, but that’s a lot better than Madame Web‘s tallies. And Madame Web is the SSU installment to which Kraven is being most frequently compared. That cinematic punchline had around $100 million behind it. As mentioned, it opened to $15.3 million and by the time all was said and done, the film had generated $43.8 million, or 2.86 times its opening weekend.
At this point, the best way to estimate how Kraven will fare in the long run is to look at initial audience interest. Madame Web netted $2.2 million in Thursday previews, which is a number Kraven couldn’t match ($2 million). That nine percent difference between Kraven and Madame Web grew to 28% for the three-day. Should it gross less 28% less than Madame Web‘s final domestic tally, Kraven will leave theaters with just $31.5 million.
Those aren’t numbers that get a movie a sequel. Those are numbers that are written on the tombstone of a cinematic universe and practically guarantee a character won’t reappear for a long, long time. Perhaps even never again, even in an MCU adventure far away from Sony.
Kraven the Hunter is in theaters now.
