Movie studios haven’t had much to celebrate at the box office this fall. In particular, October was a very rough month, posting one of the lowest domestic totals in recent memory as several films — from big-budget franchise installments to awards contenders — struggled to make an impact. Things finally turned around last weekend with the arrival of Predator: Badlands, which broke box office records in its opening weekend, easily surpassing its modest projections. As theater owners wait for the one-two punch of Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 over the Thanksgiving frame, people were interested to see if this week’s crop of new releases could continue the forward momentum. Unfortunately, that didn’t really happen.
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According to Variety, threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t led the weekend with an opening of $21.3 million domestically. It beat out The Running Man ($17 million) and holdover Predator: Badlands ($13 million) to secure the top spot. The result for The Running Man is disappointing; though it’s the highest opening weekend for a Stephen King adaptation this year, the figure is below the estimates of $20-25 million.
Can The Running Man Have Legs at the Box Office?
Budgeted at $110 million, The Running Man is going to need to have staying power if it’s to turn a healthy profit. Sadly, the odds of that happening are low. The film received mixed reviews (it has the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score of director Edgar Wright’s career), earning criticism for an uneven tone and storytelling approach. The consensus is that while The Running Man isn’t a bad film, it falls short of realizing its full potential, meaning it isn’t a must-see on the big screen. That word of mouth will likely hurt its long-term box office prospects. If it had earned raves like many of Wright’s previous movies, it’d have a better chance of sticking around.
The Running Man has no shot of competing with Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2, but there was probably a hope that it could essentially become this year’s Gladiator II, reaching the R-rated action crowd and giving its target demographic an appealing option amidst the more family friendly holiday fare. Though it’s been in theaters for a couple of weekends already and is rated PG-13, Predator: Badlands has a better shot of filling that role. In contrast from The Running Man, Badlands earned strong reviews and should continue to be a draw. It’ll also be interesting to see how Now You See Me: Now You Don’t holds up heading into the holiday.
Paramount had high hopes for The Running Man, even pushing the release date back a week so it could play on more premium format screens. Despite the brand recognition of Stephen King and star Glen Powell (who has some box office hits under his belt), The Running Man needed a stronger reception to become a bona fide blockbuster. Edgar Wright is a beloved auteur amongst cinephiles, but he’s never been synonymous with box office success. Only one film of his to date has earned over $100 million worldwide (Baby Driver, $227.1 million), so his name alone is typically not enough to draw people to the theater like other directors.
Disappointing at the box office does not mean a film will never find its audience. As we’ve seen so many times this year, streaming gives movies a new lease on life. In today’s age of shortened theatrical windows, it’s easy for people to wait for something like The Running Man to come out on PVOD or Paramount+ and watch it then. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Wright’s latest surge to the top of the home media charts whenever its time in theaters is over. Obviously, everyone involved with the film would have loved to see it win the box office on top of doing well on streaming, but Wright and Co. would be able to take solace in a strong showing at homes.
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Image courtesy of Focus Features.
