By: Scott Johnson on June 24, 2012
Some time in the next couple of days The Avengers will become the third movie in history to cross the $600 million mark at the U.S. box office. Based on early estimates from Box Office Mojo, The Avengers will finish this weekend with a total gross of $598,300,000.
In a summer, where the majority of summer blockbusters have turned out to be anything but, The Avengers stands alone in a league of its own. To put it in perspective, the next highest grossing movie of this summer is Men In Black 3, which sits at a total gross of $163,339,000. Men In Black 3 hasn’t even made a third of what The Avengers has made. Of course Men In Black 3 was released later than The Avengers, but there isn’t much chance of Men In Black 3 catching up. On the latest weekend box office chart, The Avengers actually sits in the number 8 spot ahead of Men In Black 3 in the number 9 spot.
Now, the big question is where The Avengers will eventually wind up. Last week measured as June 15 through June 21, The Avengers brought in $13,358,877 at the box office, which was a 20.7% decline over the previous week. On June 21, The Avengers sat at $591,247,781 at the U.S. box office. If The Avengers continues to decline at the same 20.7% rate, then here is what the next several weeks will look like.
June 22 – 28 = $10,593,589
June 29 – July 5 = $8,400,716
July 5 – 12 = $6,661,768
July 13 – 19 = $5,282,782
July 20 – 26 = $4,189,246
July 27 – August 2 = $3,322,072
August 3 – 9 = $2,634,403
August 10 – 16 = $2,089,082
August 17 – 23 = $1,656,642
August 24 – 30 = $1,313,717
August 31 – September 6 = $1,041,778
September 7 – 13 = $826,130
September 14 – 20 = $655,121
September 21 – 27 = $519,511
September 28 – October 4 = $411,972
Assuming that this forecast holds accurate, The Avengers will accumulate another $49,598,530 at the box office through September and will finish with a total of $640,846,311 at the U.S. box office. Once The Avengers falls below half-a-million per week, it’s also likely that it will be pretty much finished with its theater run. Now, granted this is an inexact science and the decline percentage might not hold, but that $640 million certainly seems like a pretty reasonable forecast. The Avengers could wrap up its theatrical run early once more comic book movies start to hit and fall lower, but it’s unlikely to come in higher than this forecast.
If this forecast holds up, then that means The Avengers will stay in the number three spot on the all time U.S. box office list. At $640 million, The Avengers will be only $18 million behind the Titanic, but $120 million behind Avatar. Of course, Disney could always take our idea and release an extended director’s cut version of The Avengers in theaters in late summer and go for the record. If that happens, then our prediction is that The Avengers will finish atop the all time U.S. box office chart.
