28 Years Later: The Bone Temple Projected to End Avatar’s Box Office Streak

Since Avatar: Fire and Ash debuted a week before Christmas, the sci-fi epic has ruled the box office charts. En route to a $1 billion worldwide haul, James Cameron’s threequel has maintained the No. 1 spot for four weekends in a row, becoming the first film since Barbie to accomplish that feat. That’s an impressive showing, but it’s nothing out of the ordinary for the Avatar franchise. The first two installments held on to the top position for a whopping seven consecutive weekends. Many were curious to see if Fire and Ash would be able to replicate that performance, but the latest projections indicate it’s going to fall short.

According to Variety, new horror sequel 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple is estimated to earn somewhere between $20-22 million domestically over the four-day Martin Luther King Day weekend. That puts the film on track to upend Avatar: Fire and Ash, which is projected to gross around $12-14 million during the holiday window.

Can 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple Exceed Box Office Projections?

In the post-pandemic landscape, as theatergoing habits have drastically changed, it’s become increasingly harder to accurately predict box office results. For proof, one only has to look at how some of last year’s horror films fared. A running theme at the box office in 2025 was horror movies exceeding expectations. The likes of Sinners, Final Destination: Bloodlines, The Conjuring: Last Rites, and more beat their initial estimates — to record-shattering results in some cases. Since the genre remains a sizable commercial draw, it’s fair to wonder if 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple can continue the trend into the new year.

Last summer, the first 28 Years Later set a new franchise mark by grossing $30 million domestically in its opening weekend. It’s interesting that The Bone Temple‘s estimates are much lower than that. One possible reasoning is the short amount of time that’s passed between the films’ respective releases. 28 Years Later was the first new installment in the 28 Days Later franchise in nearly 20 years; in contrast, The Bone Temple is arriving only a handful of months after that. It’s plausible that 28 Years Later was seen as the bigger event by general audiences since it had been such a long wait for a new entry. Summer is also a much busier time for moviegoing than the middle of January.

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That said, The Bone Temple does have factors working in its favor that could push it past these estimates. The sequel has been the beneficiary of very strong word of mouth. It has the highest Rotten Tomatoes score in the 28 Days Later series, with critics praising Nia DaCosta’s strong direction and compelling performances from Ralph Fiennes and Jack O’Connell. It’s rare for a new January release to receive this level of critical acclaim, so when one also factors in the buzz about The Bone Temple‘s story, there’s a good chance audiences will come out in full force for it. The Bone Temple isn’t facing much in the way of competition, as holdovers like Greenland 2: Migration didn’t make much of a dent in their debuts last week.

Even if The Bone Temple performs in line with its projections, it wouldn’t be the worst result. The film is budgeted at $63 million, so a $22 million domestic debut is solid — especially after factoring in whatever money The Bone Temple makes from international markets. The sequel doesn’t appear to be in any danger of bombing, meaning Sony’s confidence in the franchise (a third 28 Years Later received the green light) was not misplaced.

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