The first of Disney's live action reboots this year, Dumbo isn't set to hit theaters until March, but it looks like the film is on track for a solid opening weekend.
According to Box Office Pro, the long range tracking for Dumbo has the film set for an opening weekend range of $45 to 65 million at the box office. The report bases its projection on a few key positives. First, the report looks at the track record of Dumbo's director, the legendary Tim Burton. Burton's previous children's films, such as Alice in Wonderland, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, and Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children all had solid opening weekends and successful theatrical runs. This is an indicator that Burton's fans will likely come out for Dumbo. Danny Elfman's work at composer doesn’t hurt, either.
Add to that is a sense of nostalgia. Dumbo is one of Disney's best-known and beloved classic films, a factor that is likely to drive moviegoers to check out the live-action take along with the fact that the film has a solid ensemble cast, including Colin Farrell, Danny DeVito, Michael Keaton, and Eva Green. There's also Disney's box office power to consider. The report notes that with Captain Marvel opening three weeks before Dumbo and Avengers: Endgame not out for another month after, Dumbo will have plenty of space in the schedule to pull in a family audience.
The report also notes their own market research, indicating that interest score for Dumbo are similar to those of Mary Poppins Returns.
Of course, there are some cons listed as well. Disney isn't always invincible when it comes to live action adaptations. Alice Through the Looking Glass and last year's A Wrinkle in Time both were relative underperformers when compared to their production budgets. There’re also other films in theaters to consider as well. DC's Shazam! will open one week after Dumbo which could end up being a factor, as could the fact that Dumbo will be the third family film hitting theaters since the start of this month -- LEGO Movie 2 and How To Train Your Dragon 3 specifically. With other films having already come out, some moviegoers may not be in a rush to hit up Dumbo in theaters opening weekend.
You can check out the official synopsis for Dumbo below and check out the trailer above and decide for yourself if Dumbo is something you want to check out opening weekend.
“From Disney and visionary director Tim Burton, Dumbo expands on the beloved classic story where differences are celebrated, family is cherished, and dreams take flight.
"Circus owner Max Medici (Danny DeVito) enlists former star Holt Farrier (Colin Farrell) and his children Milly (Nico Parker) and Joe (Finley Hobbins) to care for a newborn elephant whose oversized ears make him a laughingstock in an already struggling circus. But when they discover that Dumbo can fly, the circus makes an incredible comeback, attracting persuasive entrepreneur V.A. Vandevere (Michael Keaton), who recruits the peculiar pachyderm for his newest, larger-than-life entertainment venture, Dreamland. Dumbo soars to new heights alongside a charming and spectacular aerial artist, Colette Marchant (Eva Green), until Holt learns that beneath its shiny veneer, Dreamland is full of dark secrets.”
Dumbo soars into theaters on March 29th.