After James Cameron’s Avatar became a record-breaking box office hit, it took 13 years for the first sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, to hit theaters. Fortunately, fans don’t have to wait that long for their next journey to Pandora, as Avatar: Fire and Ash is poised to be a massive blockbuster this holiday season. The franchise seemingly isn’t going anywhere any time soon, as there are two more Avatar films scheduled to premiere in 2029 and 2031. However, it would appear those release dates could be subject to change based on Cameron’s latest update about the planned follow-ups.
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In an interview with Variety, Cameron was asked about potential production timelines for future projects he hopes to direct, including Ghosts of Hiroshima and the fourth and fifth Avatar installments. “There are others that I may or may not direct. And the big swing in all of this is, do we make any money with Avatar 3?” he said. “I mean, we’ll make some money. But the question is, what kind of a profit margin, if any, is there, and how much of an inducement is that to continue on in this universe? Or maybe we wait a while until we figure out how to bring costs down. Because production costs have spiraled over the last few years, especially in VFX. Everything’s gone up an enormous amount, and it’s starting to close out the type of films that I like to make.”
He continued, “So there’s an argument for taking a pause and figuring that out. There’s an argument for going out and doing some smaller, more personal film in the meantime, while that gets figured out. There’s an argument, in wild success, for us just launching and just going straight into [Avatar 4 and Avatar 5] and I figure out a production methodology where I have a bit of a hiatus where I can make another film. And there’s another argument that says just go make those two damn movies and figure everything else out when I’m 80.”
Will The Next Avatar Sequels Be Delayed?
Given Cameron’s box office track record, the notion of Avatar: Fire and Ash failing to make enough money to warrant additional sequels is farfetched. The first two Avatar movies are part of the extremely rare $2 billion worldwide club, so the series is a substantial draw. It’s reasonable to assume that Fire and Ash will become this year’s highest grossing film. That said, Cameron’s thought process is still sound. Unsurprisingly, the Avatar films are very expensive endeavors. The Way of Water had a production budget in the range of $350-460 million. A reported budget for Fire and Ash isn’t available yet, but it should be in the same ballpark.
It’s important to keep in mind production budgets do not include marketing and distribution costs, which adds to an already hefty expenses report. Disney is definitely going to put together a sizable promotional campaign for Avatar: Fire and Ash to attract people to the theater so they can recoup their investment. The larger the production budget, the more a film has to earn to turn a profit. The first two Avatar films had no problems passing their break even points and becoming massively successful. Still, you never want to assume a $2 billion worldwide gross, and Fire and Ash is a bit of a litmus test for the Avatar franchise. Its predecessors benefitted from a sense of novelty. The original marked the first time big-screen spectacle looked like this, and the sequel got a boost from a prolonged absence. It remains to be seen if there are diminishing returns for Fire and Ash.
“Diminishing returns” in this case could mean $1.5 billion or $1.8 billion instead of $2.3 billion, but that would still be less money — which means a lower profit margin. So Cameron is smart to at least consider putting the next two Avatar movies on hold as he figures out a way to trim down costs. A groundbreaking auteur like Cameron isn’t going to sacrifice production value for the sake of saving a few bucks, but if there’s a way to create the world of Pandora and its characters more efficiently, it would be worthwhile to take that extra time. Studio tentpoles are increasingly expensive, and theatergoing habits have changed post-pandemic. Avatar could be immune to that, but if not, studio executives would probably appreciate not having to spend as much on one movie. After all, a smaller budget could lead to bigger profits.
It is worth noting that Cameron is also open to the idea of going full steam ahead on Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 if the situation calls for it. Theoretically, Fire and Ash could outgross The Way of Water, and any concerns about cost would be moot. For the time being, those films are going to hold on to their scheduled release dates, but it will be interesting to see how things unfold after Fire and Ash premieres. Even if it pushed $3 billion, Cameron may want to take a break for his own sake and work on something smaller as a palate cleanser before diving back into a major blockbuster.
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image courtesy of 20th Century Studios
