Throughout his career, James Cameron has proven that it is not wise to doubt his film’s box office prospects. In the build-up to Titanic, Avatar, and Avatar: Fire and Ash, people wondered if the movies would be able to connect with general audiences enough to warrant their expensive production budgets. Not only were all three of these films hits, they rank among the highest-grossing movies of all-time, punching their tickets to the rare $2 billion worldwide club. Because of that track record, most are just assuming Avatar: Fire and Ash will follow suit and pave the way for Avatar 4, but Cameron has a contingency plan in place in case it falls short of expectations.
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During an appearance on the podcast The Town, Cameron doubled down on his stance that he’ll only make Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 if Fire and Ash turns a large enough profit at the box office. But he’s seemingly at peace with Fire and Ash potentially being the franchise’s last film and knows how he’ll wrap things up if that happens. “If this is where it ends, cool,” he said. “There is one open thread. I’ll write a book.”
James Cameron’s Avatar Plan Is Smart (but More Movies Will Probably Still Happen)
Though Cameron has been the king of the box office world for decades, his handling of the Avatar franchise is smart for a few reasons. Firstly, it sounds like Fire and Ash is going to serve as a conclusion to the story of the first three Avatar films, which is encouraging to hear. Too often, Hollywood franchises fall into the trap of just assuming there will be audience demand for continued installments, leaving things unresolved to be picked up down the line in sequels or spinoffs that don’t come to fruition. If there’s just a single open thread at the end of Avatar: Fire and Ash that can be addressed in a novel, it means it tells a largely complete narrative that will (hopefully) be satisfying and fulfilling for fans.
While Cameron’s history at the box office speaks for itself, it’s still astute for him to take the “wait and see” approach regarding Avatar 4. Box office trends and audience tastes can change quickly; it wasn’t that long ago comic book adaptations dominated the multiplex, and now we’ve seen the superhero movie bubble burst. Avatar: Fire and Ash seems like a lock to be one of the year’s biggest films, but it’s good Cameron is prepared for any situation. There’s an outside chance franchise fatigue settles in and Fire and Ash isn’t as big of a draw. The first Avatar had the novelty of being an unprecedented cinematic experience; the second Avatar arrived after an extended gap, making it feel new again; Fire and Ash is coming out three short years after The Way of Water, so this is a different kind of box office test for the franchise.
Cameron isn’t expecting Avatar: Fire and Ash to be an outright bomb. His big sticking point is the profit margin. Unsurprisingly, the Avatar movies cost a lot of money to make, which means they need to earn (in Cameron’s words) “two metric f***tons of money to make a profit.” What he’s interested in seeing is if Fire and Ash is successful enough to warrant the expenses of making Avatar 4 and Avatar 5. He’s also talked about taking a hiatus so he can figure out how to produce the films more efficiently. Disney has already scheduled Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 for 2029 and 2031, respectively, but those dates are apparently subject to change depending on how things turn out.
Odds are, Cameron won’t have to turn to literature to give Avatar its definitive ending. Even if the fourth and fifth films are pushed back so Cameron can either focus on other projects or devise new filmmaking techniques, Fire and Ash should make more than enough money to ensure Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 get the green light. By the time it debuts, Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 will have already done most of their damage, and it won’t be facing any high-profile competition over the Christmas window (typically a very lucrative time for moviegoing). Nothing — not even a James Cameron film — is guaranteed to hit $2 billion, but all signs are pointing to Avatar: Fire and Ash being very profitable.
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