Going into the weekend of November 14th through 16th, there was a big question mark hanging over what would take the number one spot. Many thought it would be The Running Man while others thought Predator: Badlands would repeat in the top spot. Not many figured it would be Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, but we now know that it was in fact that magician movie which outgrossed even the more optimistic prognostications. And, while that $75.5 million global opening was a huge win for a franchise that his been dormant for nine years, it didn’t exactly spell the end for Badlands.
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Granted, Badlands did take a hit this weekend. It came in third domestically with $13 million, which was a steep 68% drop. But it also added another $16.1 million overseas, making its worldwide running total $136.3 million.
How Much Does Badlands Need to Make to Break Even?
The price tag for Dan Trachtenberg’s excellent sci-fi actioner is $105 million. The industry standard is that a movie needs to make two and a half times its budget to break even. Will Badlands be able to do so? It’s tough to say right now, because it’s currently just over halfway to that $262.5 million breakeven point after two weekends.
There are reasons to believe it could pull that off, though. And bear in mind that, even after its theatrical run, it’s undoubtedly going to do very well on streaming. That’s because of the primary reason it could break even in theaters, which is that audiences love it. It’s a very enjoyable film with a great attention to character and consistent delivery of set-pieces that don’t exist just to excite but rather to keep the plot moving steadily. People respond to quality, so even if it doesn’t rebound next weekend, this thing is going to be a favorite on people’s home screens.
But, again, the jury is out on whether the film could reach profitability on the big screen. And the reason it’s such a question mark is the long Thanksgiving weekend. That’s another two weeks away, but it’s undoubtedly a highly important few days for theaters. And unlike The Running Man (which is more fine than very good or great), Badlands will benefit from word of mouth then. Some traffic will come from people who have already seen it, know it’s good, and are bringing their family members along for viewing two. Other traffic will come from people who have heard it’s good for multiple weeks and decide to finally see it (again, with a group of family members).
It’s important to note that, while Zootopia 2 and Wicked: For Good are coming out to capitalize on Thanksgiving family gathering ticket buyer interest, neither one of them is remotely similar to Badlands. They’re going to get butts in seats, for sure, but they wouldn’t detract from the Yautja movie’s holiday success as much as a debuting movie that is targeting the exact same demo.
A Successful Mining of an Established Property
Ever since Bob Iger returned to Disney as CEO in November 2022 the company has been even more content bringing up seemingly dormant properties and giving them new life. Of course, that wasn’t entirely new, as Star Wars showed starting in 2015, but it became even more prevalent.
However, many of the company’s big IP movies (some from seemingly dormant properties and others not) haven’t really taken off since that point. For instance, 2023 had The Little Mermaid but it also had Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Marvels, and Haunted Mansion.
Likewise, this year had Lilo & Stitch but all three MCU movies faltered as did Snow White and Tron: Ares. As a 20th Century Studios movie, Badlands is also a Disney movie. And suffice to say, it has done a much better job than the similarly recent Ares, which has pretty much already ended its run with just $141 million worldwide, and on a price tag over twice that of Badlands.
There are things to learn from the film’s success, and they are primarily the aforementioned things that make it so great. A movie doesn’t necessarily have to directly connect to the franchise’s most successful installments. It’s not just the movies that promise to answer previously raised questions that get the audience interested. As long as there is a good story featuring characters who feel fleshed-out the audience will quite likely respond.
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