When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. Characters dying is a sad (and sometimes not-so-sad) inevitability in George R.R. Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire, with shocking death after shocking death that has kept readers – and subsequently viewers of HBO’s Game of Thrones – on their toes. From Ned Stark’s beheading to the Red Wedding, and Oberyn Martell’s head being crushed to Lysa Arryn being pushed, we’ve witnessed countless deaths, murders, and betrayals over the five books published so far.
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There is no reason to think The Winds of Winter will change this. Indeed, with the series approaching its endgame – Winds is the penultimate installment – then there might be a need to start trimming down its roster of characters, so that storylines can begin to coalesce. The idea that anyone can die isn’t entirely correct – there has to be a great story and character reason for it – but certainly, almost anyone can die. And while there are several characters who are, on the flip side of that, likely to survive, only five would appear to be guaranteed, based on Martin’s own plans.
Back in 1993, Martin wrote an outline for A Song of Ice and Fire, and included: “Five central characters will make it through all three volumes, however, growing from children to adults and changing the world and themselves in the process… In a sense, my trilogy is almost a generational saga, telling the life stories of these five characters, three men and two women.”
A hell of a lot has changed from that outline, including the expansion of the saga to a planned seven books. And yet, despite all of that, the five characters he named still seem pretty much guaranteed to survive The Winds of Winter, and through most of the final installment, A Dream of Spring, even if they might not all be alive by the very last pages.
5) Jon Snow
Can you die when you’re already dead? The Greyjoys would tell you no, and Jon Snow is probably going to support that notion. In what’s a 15-years-and-counting cliffhanger, Jon was killed by some of his fellow brothers of the Night’s Watch at the end of A Dance with Dragons, which we also saw play out on TV in the Game of Thrones Season 5 finale. It was an open secret that Jon would return in Season 6, and the same is true for The Winds of Winter.
The question isn’t whether Jon returns, but how and when. The most common theory is that he warged into the body of his direwolf, Ghost, at the very last moment, and that we’ll follow Jon-as-Ghost through parts of The Winds of Winter. Eventually, though, he’s going to have to come back, and deal with the Night’s Watch mutiny, then what’s happening at Winterfell, while still keeping an eye on the threat from the Far North. There’s also the matter of his parentage, with the books building to the reveal that he is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark.
As the books narrow in on the climax, Jon is going to be the main character (and already is, really). Winds should explore the fallout of his death and resurrection in depth, particularly in terms of how it changes him. But killing him again, while it’d admittedly be quite funny of Martin to do so, wouldn’t make any sense, and doesn’t seem even a remote possibility.
4) Arya Stark
For Arya Stark to die, a girl has to become Arya Stark again in the first place. Currently, that isn’t the case: at the outset of The Winds of Winter, a girl is Mercy. We know from previously released preview chapters that Arya/Mercy is still in Braavos, where she’s appearing in a play about events in Westeros. While there, she notices that Raff the Sweetling, one of the Mountain’s men (who killed her friend Lommy, of “what the f**k’s a Lommy?” fame), and later murders him.
That shows Arya is still on a path of vengeance, and The Winds of Winter will presumably be following that, along with her internal identity crisis. As happened in Game of Thrones, she will surely return to Westeros by the end of the book, reclaiming her name. The journey there, though, especially with her having wolf dreams, is going to be very different from what we saw in the TV series, and should make Arya yet again one of the most fascinating POV characters in the book.
3) Bran Stark
Like it or not (and unless Martin has since changed his mind or was simply playing a cruel jape, which is very possible), Bran Stark is going to be king at the end of A Song of Ice and Fire. The hows and whys will be very different from Game of Thrones‘ ending, but him ending up as Westeros’ ruler in the show was something that came directly from Martin himself. I’d absolutely trust Martin to get it right and provide strong justification for it, but what’s crucial to this happening is, well, Bran living. Unless Martin’s planning a Weekend at Bernie’s Brandon’s twist, he can’t become king if he’s dead.
I expect some foreshadowing of Bran’s royal future in The Winds of Winter, but being king is not something that will have any immediacy in the novel – it’s for the conclusion to A Dream of Spring, rather than anywhere in the sixth book. The focus will instead be on his training as the next Three-Eyed Crow (changed to the Three-Eyed Raven in the TV show), where he’ll experience more weirwood visions and hone his powers. That should teach us more about Bran’s abilities (something sorely lacking in Thrones), while developing his character in a way that helps set up him becoming king, and sheds light on some more of Westeros’ history as well.
2) Tyrion Lannister
With Jon, Arya, and Bran, I think it’s not only likely they’ll live through most of The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring, but all be alive at the very end of the saga as well. In contrast, there’s at least a chance Tyrion Lannister will die in A Song of Ice and Fire‘s endgame, if only because Martin himself has confirmed the character will not have a “happy ending.” There are many things that could mean, of course, but a premature death would fit the bill.
Still, there’s a long way for Tyrion to go before it gets to that point, including his long-awaited meeting with Daenerys Targaryen, and then returning to Westeros by her side. What will be interesting is to watch how dark things get with him: he’s a far more bitter, twisted, and angry person in the books than he was at the same stage of the show. And while he tried to be the voice of reason in Game of Thrones Season 8 when Daenerys came to conquer King’s Landing, it’s quite possible he’ll be the one encouraging her to give in to her worst impulses in the books. He’ll survive, but he has the deaths of others, including his family, firmly on his mind.
1) Daenerys Targaryen
Even more than with Tyrion, there’s a good chance Daenerys Targaryen is dead when A Song of Ice and Fire is over. Whether that’s her being killed by Jon Snow or some other means remains to be seen. But what there’s no chance of is her being dead when The Winds of Winter is over. She’s perhaps secondly only to Jon Snow in terms of her importance and standing in the books, and the series has to be building to a massive role for her in the war against the Others, and then whatever is left to come after that.
In terms of Dany’s story in The Winds of Winter, we should know where things are going, at least in terms of the broad strokes. Firstly, she has to get back to Meereen, having ended The Dance with Dragons in the Dothraki sea, where she’s found by Khal Jhaqo and his khalasar.
After that, and settling business in Meereen, then we should finally see Dany head to Westeros. If Winds has time, there’ll also be some more family drama when she arrives, as it’s quite possible there’ll be another Targaryen on the Iron Throne by that point, in her nephew, Aegon (no, not Jon Snow, but the firstborn son of Rhaegar, who is ostenisbly still alive and has his sights on becoming king). If there’s a Targaryen death in Winds, it’s more likely to be his.
Sansa Stark’s Fate Might Have Changed
I would’ve expected Sansa Stark to make it through The Winds of Winter anyway, though she wasn’t among Martin’s original five characters who’d be making it to the very end. She’s still a key player, if a little less so than some of the others, and there’s plenty for the books to cover with her in the Vale and then eventually returning to Winterfell (though it’ll be very different to Thrones, since she won’t be married off to Ramsay Bolton). Intriguingly, though, Martin recently had this to say about her:
“I was going to have Sansa die, but she’s been so appealing in the show, maybe I’ll let her live.”
That doesn’t mean she was going to die in The Winds of Winter, but nonetheless, it’s an interesting and pretty major change of heart from the author. It’s also quite possible, given he mentions the show, that her ending as Queen in the North – or, at the very least, Lady of Winterfell – is in play for A Dream of Spring.
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