House of the Dragon showrunner Ryan Condal just teased some major developments in Season 3, and fans got right to work trying to figure out what they are. The show is an adaptation of George R.R. Martin’s fictional history book Fire & Blood, so it’s easy to make predictions about the pacing and progress of the story based on that bird’s-eye-view. Condal spoke at a panel on Thursday with some of the show’s biggest stars and other creative voices. He teased “four major events from the book” coming in Season 3, and knowing that the show is aiming for four seasons, we may be able to pin down what they are.
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WARNING: there are spoilers for House of the Dragon ahead!
“Season 2 is huge. Season 3 is huger, in many ways,” Condal said. “There are, by my quick count on stage, four major events from the book that we get to adapt and realize in three dimensions in this season. That’s really exciting on a scope-and-scale perspective, and I think it’s the thing the show does really well. The things that we’re building are mind-boggling. But what I’m most excited about from a dramatic perspective is that we got to have a little fun this season, and there’s a conceptual episode, meaning that it isn’t in the traditional vernacular of what we’ve laid out as the structure of a House of the Dragon episode. It’s very character-driven, and I think it’s really great and I’m really excited to see it rendered.”
House of the Dragon adapts a small portion of Fire & Blood. The book covers approximately the first half of the Targaryen dynasty in Westeros, from the year 1 AC (“after conquest”) to 136 AC. House of the Dragon is about the civil war known as “The Dance of the Dragons,” which takes place from 129 AC to 131 AC. However, the show started much earlier in the timeline to give us some set-up on these characters, and it may end far after the war is over for the same reason. Not knowing where the show will end is the biggest challenge in predicting how far Season 3 will go.
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Battle of the Gullet
Even then, our first guess is relatively easy — Season 3 will almost certainly begin with the Battle of Gullet, as Condal has said in other interviews. This battle seems to have been meant for the end of Season 2 before HBO cut the show’s episode count at the last minute. The Battle of the Gullet will be a naval battle pitting the Triarchy warships against House Velaryon’s blockade in Blackwater Bay.
This is shaping up to be one of the biggest naval battles we’ve seen in Westeros — even counting Game of Thrones, where naval warfare was downplayed compared to the books. It will also allow the eccentric Admiral Sharako Lohar to make more sense, and perhaps even give Prince Jacaerys something to do for once.
The Fall of King’s Landing
This is a bit out of order, but the ending of Season 2 made it feel as though Rhaenyra would capture King’s Landing any moment. This would be a slight change from the book, but it makes sense — especially as the writers have made it clear they want the show to center on the relationship between Rhaeyra and Alicent. With Alicent a prisoner in the Red Keep, it will be very easy to keep these two heroines together in the spotlight.
This is a pretty bloodless fight, relying on the city watch’s continued loyalty to Daemon, so there may not be much spectacle here. I, fact, it’s possible this wasn’t even one of the big events Condal was referring to at his panel. If not, there are others to chose from below.
Battle of the Red Fork
The next major engagement in this war is the Battle of the Honeywine, but there’s a theory growing in popularity among fans that this may be abbreviated in the TV show. All we really need from this battle is the on-screen debut of Prince Daeron Targaryen and his dragon Tessarion, who have both been sequestered in Oldtown for the entire story so far. This might be one of the big set pieces Condal was talking about, but we may also see the aftermath of this battle and nothing more, like the fight between the Brackens and Blackwoods in Season 2.
Instead, I’m predicting that the next big event Condal mentioned referred to some of the major battles in the Riverlands around this time. The show may conflate some of these fights into one, such as the Battle at the Red Fork and the Battle at Acorn Hall. Here, the Lannisters and their bannermen win some decisive victoryies, but they lose a lot of their key leaders in the process, including Lord Jason Lannister himself.
The Battle by the Lakeshore could be included in this “event,” but it could also stand on its own as the third major event Condal referred to. That fight is significant because it finally shows House Stark arriving from the North and joining the fight. This is believed by maesters to be the “bloodiest battle of the Dance,” and is grimly nicknamed “The Fishfeed.”
Ironborn Attack
If not the Fishfeed, Condal’s next big event has to be the Ironborn joining the war. Lord Dalton Greyjoy has been mentioned several times on the show, and while he refused any arrangement with Aegon II and the Hightower faction, he is happy to raid western shore while it’s vulnerable due to war. Rather than offering Greyjoy new titles and honors, Rhaenyra and Daemon simply ask him to attack the Westerlands while House Lannister is distracted.
Greyjoy — a.k.a. “The Red Kraken” — takes his Ironborn raiding and pillaging all the undefended lands on the west coast, sacking Lannisport and Fair Isle. They are able to overrun the country and take what they want, though they can’t break down the defenses of Casterly Rock itself. All this fighting may seem inconsequential to the war between Targaryens, but it falls right in line with Martin’s pervasive anti-war themes.
Butcher’s Ball & First Tumbleton
There’s enough material here to fill out the season if it’s all given maximum screentime, but the pace this show is setting may not allow for that. Therefore, I’ll mention the next two fights that could conclude Season 3. First comes Butcher’s Ball — a crafty confrontation between the forces of House Stark and Ser Criston Cole. Here, the Northmen hide among the corpses scattered across a battlefield in the Riverlands until Cole’s army is passing by. They then rise up ad attack with the element of surprise, overwhelming the Hightower forces.
Butcher’s Ball needs to be on the show because of its unique setup and gruesome nature, but it wouldn’t be all that surprising if it was somehow combined with the Fishfeed for brevity. The more likely season ender seems to be the First Battle of Tumbleton, fought between the Hightower army and Rhaenyra’s loyalists. Here, Daeron and Tessarion go to battle again, and it would make sense to book-end the season with their involvement. On top of that, the dragonseeds Ulf and Hugh fly in to join this battle on dragonback, and this show definitely needs to maximize its dragon time wherever it can.
You can read about these battles and make your own predictions in Fire & Blood, available now in print, digital, and audiobook formats. House of the Dragon Season 3 is expected to debut sometime in 2026. In the meantime, a new spinoff called A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms hits HBO and Max sometime this year.
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