Expendables, Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Contest May Be Too Close to Call

Box Office Mojo projects that the margin of error between the #1 and #3 spot will be around $2 million, meaning that an unexpectedly good (or bad) night, it could throw the order completely.

Here’s their projections for the top three based on current numbers, which include a less-than-impressive $875,000 from Thursday preview screenings for Expendables 3:

1. Ninja Turtles – $26.2 million
2. Guardians – $24.9 million
3. Expendables 3 – $24 million

They also see new releases Let’s Be Cops and The Giver rounding out the top five, with Cops getting a $26.5 million, five-day opening (it debuted on Wednesday). Even assuming that number, it wouldn’t be the week’s #1, though; both Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles have been averaging around $5 million a day this week, meaning that if you were to count Let’s Be Cops‘s two-day, $10 million bump, it would still come out around $10 million below Guardians and Turtles.

None of the week’s new movies have been greeted warmly by critics; The Giver, many say, succumbs to many of the same young adult adaptation tropes and flaws that have plagued the movies based on books its source material inspired when it was written years ago. None of the three new films managed to score more than 33% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, with Let’s Be Cops scoring just 9%, one of the only major releases of the year to score in single digits.