Joker’s Odds for Winning Best Picture Are Better Than Most Other Nominees

The voting deadline for The Academy Awards this year will arrive in just a few hours from this writing (voting close at 5 PM PST), and ahead of the ceremony the Vegas odds for the Best Picture winners have been revealed. US-Bookies debuted their final betting lines for the 92nd Academy Awards and there are some surprises in the mix for the Best Picture winners.

Sam Mendes’ war movie 1917 has long been the favorite to win Best Picture, having secured that award at the Producer’s Guild, BAFTAs, and Golden Globes, and the odds makers agree. Currently 1917 has 3/5 odds to win the top prize, making it a 62.5% probability. Following 1917 in order of likely odds are Once Upon A Time in Hollywood at 4/1 and Parasite at 6/1. Curiously, Joker is in the middle of the pack, with 11/1 odds (just an 8.33% probability), but that still puts the DC Comics film at better odds to win the award than most of the other nominees for the prize.

After Joker the odds go really high with The Irishman sitting at 30/1 (or 3.23% probability) and then both Jojo Rabbit and Marriage Story at 50/1 (1.96% probability). Ford v Ferrari and Little Women are tied for the lowest odds, but potentially the highest payout, each sitting at 100/1 odds (.99% probability to win). For reference, placing a $100 bet on 1917 would only yield a $60 profit but the same bet on Joker would net a lucky better $1100 in profit, assuming the film won the prize. This all pales compared to if Ford v Ferrari or Little Women won, where a $100 bet would pay out $10,000.

Odds for some of the other major categories were also released, with Joker‘s Todd Phillips the underdog at 50/1 odds to win the Best Director Oscar. As previously reported, Joaquin Phoenix remains the top choice for the Best Actor prize, with US-Bookies giving him 1/16 odds, or 94.12% probability. For an example of how likely they consider this outcome, and how little this bet would pay out, a $100 wager on Phoenix to win Best Actor would only net your $6.25 in profit.

Considering how many awards Joker was nominated for this year in total, the film leads the nominees this year with 11 overall nominations, it does seem likely that it will take home more than one Oscar with Phoenix’s win all but assured. As far as the other nominees The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and 1917 are all right behind Joker with 10 nominations each, while Marriage Story, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, and Parasite landed six apeice.

Fan favorites’ Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was nominated in three categories — Best Visual Effects, Best Original Score, and Best Sound Editing; with Avengers: Endgame, on the other hand, only nominated in the Best Visual Effects category.

The 92nd Academy Awards air Sunday, Feb. 9 on ABC. You can read the full list of nominees for this year by clicking here.