Predicting the Biggest Movie of 2026 by Box Office

The U.S. domestic total box office in 2020 was just $2.28 billion, but that was because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Of course it came in low. But, then again, the box office has been struggling for a while now. 2021 came in at $4.87 billion (while not to as large an extent, COVID played a role in that low figure as well). 2022 came in at $7.5 billion, 2023 improved to $9 billion, 2024 dipped back to $8.56 billion, and 2025 is likely to come it at around $8.3 billion. That sounds great, right? Like a lot of money. But it doesn’t look so great when you think about inflation and the fact that 2015 movies made $11 billion domestically and 2016 to 2019 all also exceeded $11 billion.

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In other words, the increasing rise of streaming has put a hurting on ticket sales. However, there are so many highly anticipated big screen adventures on the docket for 2026 that it seems we may have a record breaker on our hands. But which will be the year’s highest grosser? Let’s find out.

Long-Shots

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There’s nothing in January that is going to be particularly lucrative (though Sam Raimi’s Send Help could break out to a degree), but February has one that is going to be particularly interesting, and that’s Wuthering Heights. It has some word-of-mouth building regarding how sexual it supposedly is, so that could get the Fifty Shades of Grey out to see it. Plus, Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi are box office draws, so this one could take off. March’s Project Hail Mary could also take off to the tune of, say, $300 million worldwide (which would also be great for Wuthering), but it won’t be the highest-grossing movie of 2026’s first half.

July has two other major movies that are going to do quite well, but not well enough to earn the top spot. Those are the live-action remake of Moana and Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

For Moana, it’s best to compare the live action How to Train Your Dragon to its animated counterparts. The 2025 Dragon made $636.4 million worldwide, which made it the highest grossing of the four movies, though not by much. However, there’s reason to believe it won’t be the same case for Moana. Like with Dragon, Moana feels too soon, so it’s highly doubtful it beats the $1.059 billion accrued by Moana 2 (2024, very recent to kick off a live action reboot). However, it could very well beat the $643.3 million total of the 2016 original film. $800 million doesn’t feel unheard of.

As for The Odyssey, let’s look at three of the four previous Nolan movies. Why just four of the five? Because Tenet was a COVID era release. Interstellar made $771 million, Dunkirk made $533.7 million, and Oppenheimer made $975.8 million. The Odyssey is hotly anticipated, but it would be tough for it to match the event level of Oppenheimer, which benefitted greatly from glowing word-of-mouth. So, while it may end up being a conservative estimate, we figure The Odyssey will end up somewhere between Interstellar and Oppenheimer. Then again, if it beats The Dark Knight Rises ($1.115 billion) to become Nolan’s highest grosser we’d be surprised but shy of shocked.

Long-Shots: November & December

The final two months of the year have several movies that could be moneymakers, but there’s still reason to be cautious. For instance, November has The Cat in the Hat and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping while December has the third Jack Black, Dwayne Johnson, Karen Gillan, and Kevin Hart Jumanji movie. As for Dune: Part Three, that’s supposedly coming out on the same day as an even bigger movie and Warner Bros. seems adamant about keeping it at that spot. But it would be a mistake.

We’re over 20 years away from the disastrous live action The Cat in the Hat, so it’s high time for a reboot. And, just as that Mike Myers movie followed Jim Carrey’s How the Grinch Stole Christmas, it’s best to compare this Cat to the animated The Grinch from 2018. That movie made $553 million then, which wouldn’t be an unheard-of figure for The Cat in the Hat.

The peak for the Hunger Games IP is The Hunger Games: Catching Fire‘s $869 million. Will Sunrise on the Reaping reach that high? Not likely, but it certainly appears to be more of an event film than The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes. Split the difference between the high and the low and Sunrise on the Reaping makes about $610 million.

Jumanji: The Next Level made about $160 million less than the surprise mega hit Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ($802 million vs. $962.5 million). It likely won’t be that much of a drop this time but let’s say it either holds steady or drops $50 million from The Next Level‘s total. It helps that this is the last of the new Jumanji movies, so there’s the glimmer of event project appeal.

Denis Villeneuve’s first two Dune movies told the whole story of the first and still most beloved book. And, while Dune Messiah has its fans, it’s still safe to assume that the Oscar darling Dune: Part Two was this particular IP reaching its financial cap of $715 million. If Part Three sticks to that figure, which was a $300 million improvement over Part One, it would be considered a success. And considering how both Dune movies have only accumulated more fans, it’s safe to assume $700 million is a safe bet for round three.

Dead Heat Horses

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As mentioned, neither Wuthering Heights nor Project Hail Mary will be the top performer of the year’s first six months. Instead, that will be either The Mandalorian & Grogu or Toy Story 5. Then again, if Supergirl overperforms, it could overtake them.

That’s doubtful, though. For now, we’re calling Mandalorian at somewhere around The Rise of Skywalker‘s $1.077 billion worldwide haul and Toy Story 5 around the fourth installment’s $1.073 billion. Supergirl will be deemed a success if she gets near her cousin’s $616.8 million gross.

Then there’s July’s Minions 3. To get a gist of where this one will end up, it’s best to look at all the previous Despicable Me and Minions movies. The first Despicable made $544 million worldwide, which jumped to $970 million for the sequel. Then, the first Minions spin-off beat its core franchise with $1.16 billion.

That was the peak for the franchise, because it went down to $1.034 for Despicable Me 3, then $940 million for Minions: The Rise of Gru, then up a bit to $972 for Despicable Me 4. In short, it seems likely this third Minions will follow in the footsteps of its two predecessors and remain in that $900 million range. Even if this is where franchise fatigue sets in (which doesn’t seem entirely unlikely), Minions 3 will still turn a profit.

Big Question Mark Movies

Steven Spielberg tends to release hits. However, his highest-grossing stuff came out in the ’70s, ’80s, and ’90s. As far as the aughts, Minority Report made $358.4 million, Catch Me If You Can made $352.1 million, and it took bonafide event films like War of the Worlds ($603.9 million) and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($786.6 million) to break out of that range. As for his 2010s, the only movie that really exceeded that $300 million area by a healthy margin was Ready Player One at $608 million. And, if the reviews are as enticing as its trailer, there’s good reason to believe that’s right around where his Disclosure Day will end up. People like a Spielberg alien movie.

Clayface is another one that is hard to predict. The superhero subgenre has felt notoriously stale for a while now. This DCU movie feels like a major shake-up. However, it’s still an R-rated horror movie, so $400 million kind of feels like its cap. Then again, Joker made a billion dollars, and it was an R-rated psychological thriller. Never underestimate the power of word of mouth and strong marketing.

The Likely Victor

Even though the MCU has lost some fans the past few years, there’s no doubt that Avengers: Doomsday is the most highly anticipated movie of 2026. A lot is hinging on its success to save the overarching universe. Toss in some returning X-Men and Robert Downey Jr. in a new (new-ish?) role and the anticipation is well-deserved.

The question is, will Doomsday be profitable? The rumor mill suggests that the pre-marketing price tag is upwards of $600 million. That would make it $200 million more expensive than Avengers: Endgame and even more than the other priciest movies ever made: Jurassic World Dominion and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. In other words, Doomsday is going to be the most expensive movie ever made.

The first Avengers made $1.521 billion against a pre-marketing cost of $225 million. It was a huge hit. Age of Ultron made about $100 million less on a net budget of $365 million, but it was still enough to make it another major hit. Infinity War made about $2.05 billion against a budget of around $325 million (Again, pre-marketing), so it was the biggest hit for the team-up movies at that point. The price tag for Avengers: Endgame was, on the low end, just over $350 million. It raked in about $2.8 billion. That was enough to make it one of the highest-grossing and, overall, most successful movies of all time.

The chances of Doomsday making as much as Endgame, the MCU’s definitive event film, aren’t particularly high. However, it still has a fantastic chance of exceeding $2 billion. We’ll put it in league with Infinity War, the other first half of a massive two-part narrative.