It isn’t a stretch to say the summer box office has been a bit unexpected so far this year. Major studio tentpoles like The Mandalorian and Grogu and Masters of the Universe have faltered, while indie horror movies Obsession and Backrooms have been the talk of the town. With all that in mind, people were curious to see how Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day would fare in its opening. There was a time when a new sci-fi film from Spielberg would be one of the biggest hits of the year, but Disclosure Day was projected to have a somewhat soft debut heading into the weekend. Fortunately, it’s now managed to exceed those projections.
Videos by ComicBook.com
According to Deadline, Disclosure Day is now estimated to earn $44 million domestically over its first three days, which would be the biggest opening for an original Spielberg-helmed film. Half of Disclosure Day‘s ticket sales came from IMAX and other premium large format screenings, indicating moviegoers were excited to see Spielberg’s work on the biggest of screens.
Will Disclosure Day Have Strong Legs at the Box Office?
Before Disclosure Day premiered, it was said that an opening of around $50 million domestically would put the film “on firm ground” as far as its commercial prospects are concerned. Obviously, Disclosure Day came in a little below that target, so now the question is whether or not it can hold well over the next couple of weeks and become profitable. Spielberg’s latest is going to have it work cut out for itself because the multiplex is only going to get more crowded in June. Next week sees the release of Toy Story 5 (which could be a $1 billion hit) and Supergirl caps off the month the week after that. So, Disclosure Day will be facing competition from some heavy hitters.
Something else to consider is that Disclosure Day has a CinemaScore of B, which sounds good on paper, but is actually a sign of muted response amongst audiences. Universal put together a somewhat risky promotional campaign for Disclosure Day, omitting footage from the third act to preserve the mysteries surrounding the film. While Disclosure Day earned positive reviews from professional critics, that gambit could have backfired with general moviegoers, who might have been unsatisfied with how the story turned out. It’ll be interesting to see what tone the word of mouth takes moving forward. If the discourse is negative, it could hurt Disclosure Day long-term.
All that said, Disclosure Day was able to appeal to older viewers and millennials, demographics who didn’t show up in full force for Mandalorian and Grogu and Masters of the Universe. Should word of mouth be positive, perhaps Disclosure Day could emerge as something of a counter-programming option for the older crowd, helping it hold its own against Toy Story 5. Pixar’s latest will undoubtedly win the box office next weekend, but there’s a path for Disclosure Day to do well if it continues to draw in adults who are in the mood for some thought-provoking sci-fi.
Disclosure Day had a production budget of $115 million, a figure that doesn’t include marketing and distribution costs. That number is actually lower than some of the other major releases this summer, so Disclosure Day doesn’t need to become one of the highest-grossing films of all time like the Spielberg blockbusters of yesteryear to end up in the black. At the same time, it can’t fall off a cliff a la The Mandalorian and Grogu either, especially considering the movies that are on the way (July is also a huge month for blockbusters). Next weekend will go a long way in determining if it’ll ultimately be a commercial success. If it has a strong enough hold, it’ll be in solid shape.
What do you think? Leave a comment below and join the conversation now in the ComicBook Forum!
