The summer movie season is traditionally when studios release the projects they hope will be massive blockbusters. So far in 2026, they haven’t seen the desired results. The films that most meet the profile of the prototypical “summer movie” have underwhelmed. The Mandalorian and Grogu posted the lowest opening for a Disney-era Star Wars movie before suffering a massive drop, and Masters of the Universe debuted below its soft projections. Now, movie theaters are gearing up for the release of Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day, an original big-budget sci-fi movie. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like it’s going to end this summer’s trend of studio tentpoles struggling to make an impact.
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According to The Wrap, Disclosure Day is projected to earn between $35-40 million domestically in its opening weekend. Even the high end of those estimates would be under Spielberg’s Ready Player One, which debuted to $41.7 million domestically back in 2018. For context, The Mandalorian and Grogu grossed $81.6 million in its first three days, while Masters of the Universe only managed $29.4 million. The low end of Disclosure Day‘s projections aren’t much higher than that figure.
Can Disclosure Day Outperform Its Box Office Projections?
Disclosure Day has a reported production budget of $115 million (not counting marketing and distribution costs), which is actually on the low end for a film such as this. As a point of comparison, The Mandalorian and Grogu cost around $165 million to make, and Masters of the Universe had a price tag between $170-200 million. Disclosure Day isn’t in a position where it needs to break box office records like Spielberg’s blockbusters of yesteryear to be profitable, but $35 million would still be a soft debut. The Wrap notes that something in the ballpark of $50 million domestically “would put Disclosure Day on firm ground.”
There are encouraging signs that Disclosure Day could get there. Word of mouth is very positive; the Rotten Tomatoes score (which has since gone down a bit) initially ranked among the highest ratings for a Spielberg-directed sci-fi film. Even if the final score isn’t going to rival Jurassic Park or Close Encounters of the Third Kind, the general consensus is that Disclosure Day is one of Spielberg’s strongest works in years, delivering an emotional, thought-provoking story complemented by classic big-screen spectacle that only the master can craft. Based on the early responses, Disclosure Day is something that demands to be seen on the biggest of screens, meaning IMAX screenings could give it a boost.
Disclosure Day also isn’t facing much in the way of direct competition for its main target audience. If The Mandalorian and Grogu or Masters of the Universe had fared better, this might have been more of a concern, but Disclosure Day should have a clear runway in its opening. Of course, the same could have been said for Mandalorian and Masters of the Universe when they were opening, so it remains to be seen how Disclosure Day‘s core demographic will turn out. The story of the summer so far has been indie horror movies that appeal to a younger audience, like Obsession and Backrooms. The traditional summer movies haven’t been as big of a draw; Disclosure Day, with its positive reviews, could be a litmus test for whether it was more the movies themselves or just changing moviegoing habits from the target audiences that’s to blame.
Spielberg, who turns 80 later this year, is synonymous with box office dominance. He’s the highest-grossing director of all time. However, many of his top earners are classic blockbusters from decades ago, such as Jaws, Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T., and Jurassic Park. Spielberg isn’t the box office titan he once was. Some of that can be chalked up to the kinds of films he’s made of late (The Fabelmans was more of an awards season play, for example), but it’s something to keep in mind as Disclosure Day lands in theaters. Spielberg’s name will forever carry a considerable amount of clout in the film industry, but time will tell if it’s still enough to draw large enough crowds to the multiplex. Assuming audiences like Disclosure Day as much as critics seem to, perhaps it’ll exceed expectations.
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