It should be quite the warm reception at the box office for Jason Bourne if early tracking pans out.
The spy thriller franchise looks to be in for a $50 million dollar opening weekend stateside, where it will be releasing in 4,025 theatres (via Vanity Fair). That's a solid opening for the returning series, but it doesn't quite beat out The Borne Supremacy ($52.5 million) or even come close to The Bourne Ultimatum's $69.3 million.
Hopes are high though that positive word of mouth and long legs could propel the entry way past its $120 million production budget, and as you can tell from the other opening amounts, the franchise has never made a huge debut, relying rather on older audiences who come and see a film over the first few weeks of release rather than the first few days. Jason Bourne also brings back Matt Damon in the starring role along with Paul Greengrass, who directed the previous two films.
"[Damon] is back in the role that people love him in," said Eric Handler, an analyst with MKM Partners. "I would think there'd be more excitement around the movie. There's more positive than negative reviews and they're promoting the heck out of it."
As for competition, Bourne will be up against two other debuting films, Bad Moms and Nerve. Mom's stars Mila Kunis, Kristen Bell, Kathryn Hahn, and Christina Applegate, and is directed by Jon Lucas and Scott Moore, the team behind The Hangover. The film only cost $20 million to make and is eyeing a $22 million debut. Nerve meanwhile stars Dave Franco and Emma Roberts, and while it also only cost $20 million to produce, it is predicted to only bring in around half of that. The biggest competition to Bourne will be Star Trek Beyond, which is in its second week.