Streaming hits Prey and Predator: Killer of Killers brought the Predator franchise back from the dead, but the release of Predator: Badlands marked a different kind of test for the IP. For the first time in seven years, a new Predator film is premiering in theaters, serving as a new barometer for where the franchise stands in the pop culture zeitgeist. The convenience of being able to watch something at home makes it easier for projects to become hits on streaming; box office bombs frequently top home media charts months later. Putting Predator: Badlands in theaters spoke to 20th Century Studios’ confidence in the project, but many were still curious to see how successful the Predator brand would be at drawing people to the multiplex. The early returns are a bit uneven.
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According to Deadline, Predator: Badlands grossed $4.8 million from preview screenings that took place on Wednesday and Thursday. While that figure tops the $2.5 million Shane Black’s The Predator posted back in 2018, it’s still behind the $6.5 million Alien: Romulus earned during its previews last summer.
Can Predator: Badlands Turn Things Around at the Box Office?
Predator: Badlands should win the box office this weekend, but that might say more about the lack of competition than the Predator franchise itself. The industry is coming off the worst October box office in 27 years (excluding 2020), so there wasn’t a popular holdover drawing business away. Predator has also been more of a cult franchise throughout its history; the original is hailed as one of the standout 1980s action films (and an iconic Arnold Schwarzenegger vehicle), but the follow-ups didn’t gain as much traction. Predator is in a bit of a strange middle ground where the name is recognizable, but it’s never been synonymous with massive box office numbers. Badlands seems to be a continuation of that, as it’s projected to earn $25 million domestically in its opening.
$25 million would be the second-best debut for a Predator movie (behind only the first Alien vs. Predator), but it’s also a step below the $33.2 million Tron: Ares posted in its debut a month ago. It will be interesting to see if Badlands can exceed these estimates. One thing working in its favor is that word of mouth appears to be strong. Badlands earned positive reviews ahead of its release (86% on Rotten Tomatoes), with many people praising it for being a fascinating expansion of the franchise’s mythos. Once again, director Dan Trachtenberg has broken the mold of what’s possible with a Predator movie, so that buzz could encourage viewers to check it out.
Predator: Badlands is also the highest-profile title playing in theaters this weekend. The other new releases are counterprogramming options targeting different demographics. Nothing is on the scale of a new sci-fi action film, plus, Badlands will benefit from premium format screenings. This was arguably the best time to try to make a big splash with a new Predator movie, as the marketplace has been barren for a while now. It’s been so long since the summer tentpoles that genre fans hungry for something new might decide to go for Predator.
If Badlands performs within its projections, it’ll be interesting to see how that impacts the franchise’s future. It’s important to note that the film’s production budget was $105 million before marketing costs, making it a cheaper investment than Tron: Ares. Badlands has an easier path to profitability than that Disney sci-fi flop, though it still has some work to cross that threshold. Trachtenberg has plenty of ideas for more Predator movies, but Badlands needs to be a hit in order to justify more theatrical releases.
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