Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Eyeing $130 Million Opening Weekend

Despite some initial consumer confusion over Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and its position within the franchise, the recent marketing blitz seems to be doing its job. The film is now tracking for a monster opening weekend of over $130 million in North American box office, according to the first released projections. The three-week projections are early, but do tend to give a solid general impression of at least the neighborhood a film should hit in its first bow.

Rogue One opens December 16, a day shy of one year to the day since Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened to a box office record annihilating $247,966,675 opening weekend. That beat the previous record holder Jurassic World, set only six months prior, by nearly forty million dollars, and made prior December records look like pocket change – The Hobbit held December’s prior win with less than $85 million. A $130 million opener for Rogue One will set it in a clear and dominant #2 position in the first winter month, and if it can crack $134 million, it could even deliver a top 20 overall victory.

The $4 billion bet Disney placed on Star Wars when they purchased Lucasfilm four years ago has already been paid back in full, with profits to boot. The Force Awakens grossed over two billion dollars at the global box office, and toy and licensed product sales of Star Wars generated over three billion in 2015 – that’s almost entirely in the lead-up to their first film collaboration. The renewed juggernaut has been a strong performer all around, with books landing on best seller lists, a line of Marvel Comics that have been consistent top sellers, and Star Wars Rebels an animated success for cable channel Disney XD.

Rogue One had some more casual fans confused, however, as the film doesn’t continue the story of Rey, Finn, Poe Dameron, Kylo Ren, and Luke Skywalker as told in The Force Awakens. Instead, it takes the story telling back to the moments before the original movie, Star Wars: Episode IV – A New Hope. The plot is ripped from that film’s opening crawl, which reads: “Rebel spaceships, striking from a hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil Galactic Empire. During the battle, Rebel spies managed to steal secret plans to the Empire’s ultimate weapon, the DEATH STAR, an armored space station with enough power to destroy an entire planet.” Directed by Gareth Edwards, the movie stars Felicity Jones as Jyn Erso, a young woman recruited to the Rebellion to steal the Death Star plans. She’s recruited due to her connection to the project – her father Galen (Mads Mikkelsen) designed the weapon in the massive station.

The standalone film was never expected to do Force Awakens level business, but if it can far outpace other December launches, it will be a great sign for the franchise. The next standalone, a young Han Solo adventure starring Alden Ehrenreich as the lead with Donald Glover as Lando Calrissian and Emilia Clarke in an as-yet-unknown role, is set for a 2018 release, and will look to build on the potential success of Rogue One. Described as a much more traditional “war movie,” the film will also test audiences to see if they’ll accept less of the fantasy elements in a Star Wars movie.

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Rogue One should also help Disney top $7 billion globally in 2016, an industry record.