A Founding Member Of The Xbox Team Has One Big Fear For The Brand’s Future — And I Think She’s Right

A long-time Xbox employee has some pretty dire predictions for the future of the brand. Laura Fryer knows what she’s talking about, too. The video game producer was one of the early members of Microsoft Games Studio and a founding member of the Xbox team, serving as a producer on titles like Crimson Skies and Gears of War for years. In a video she posted to YouTube, Fryer revealed that she was actually a doubter of the Xbox in the early days of the console, arguing that Windows was already the dominant force in PC gaming and that trying to launch a console was an unnecessary risk.

She argued that one of the biggest challenges would be supply chain issues and that the overall cost of producing the Xbox on a large scale would require the platform to be a massive success to be profitable. While Fryer believes that Xbox avoided these potential pitfalls in the early days of the platform, she now believes the state of the market has turned on Xbox — and her fears from 25 years ago are finally befalling the studio. The thing is, given recent shifts like the increased pricing for the Xbox Series X/S and the closure of several studios, she may be right.

What Laura Fryer Thinks Is Going To Happen To Xbox

As Fyer explains in her video, “Why Xbox Is In Trouble,” a mixture of industry-wide supply issues is just one of the dominoes falling that could unravel Xbox as we know it. Arguing that the increased demand for CPU amid the AI race, Fryer notes that Game Pass has severely impacted the sales of Xbox’s first-party games and that their acquisition spree from the last couple of years has put unnecessary stakes on their overall success — leading the company to subsequently close those studios after their games become critical successes but not overwhelming commercial hits.

This is on top of Windows losing ground in the PC gaming space, especially as gamers increasingly flock to the Linux-based Steam Machine and Steam Deck. She expects the company to cut costs by closing or selling more of the AA and AAA studios under their umbrella, undercutting efforts to create new first-party exclusive games and further pushing people away from the Xbox brand. After that, the next Xbox, codenamed Helix, will attempt to replicate the success of the Steam Machine and push Microsoft gaming back more firmly into the PC space. While the Xbox may live on in some form as a result, it’ll be more akin to a gaming PC that plugs into the TV as opposed to a dedicated console. It’s not necessarily an optimistic view of the future of Xbox Games — but given recent developments from the company, it also seems somewhat plausible.

Xbox Is Having A Real Rough Time Of It

Xbox has been a major fixture of the console space for 25 years, but things have never felt so dire for the company. Xbox has slid firmly into third in the console race against rivals like Sony and Nintendo, a situation that seems only worse in light of the upcoming Steam Machine. While that platform’s price tag is over $1000 — and will therefore face some struggles in breaking out in the gaming space — the expected price hikes facing the next generation of consoles have only given players more pause before wanting to invest in another generation of consoles.

Xbox has also been struggling to maintain fan excitement, especially as leadership changes and studio closures undercut all the studio acquisitions from the last few years. That’s left developers naturally wary for their jobs in an industry that’s already been facing a massive influx of layoffs and studio closures, while also leaving fans frustrated. With a common sentiment in the fanbase decrying the lack of exclusive original titles to make the console a viable contrast to other platforms, the loss of potential hitmakers for the sake of the bottom line is making fans frustrated at the apparent direction of the company. This is all on top of the struggles facing the industry at large, with the supply chain issues making everything more expensive for gamers and businesses alike. That’s likely why rumored layoffs might be coming for the company.

All of this suggests that Fryer’s fears for the future of the company may be well-founded, speaking to the challenges Xbox faces if it wants to survive, let alone thrive. While Nintendo, Sony, and Valve are also facing their share of problems, those publishers aren’t dealing with lower sales and dwindling public support. We may already be seeing some of Fryer’s fears come true, with the closure of studios like Ninja Theory. I think the rest of her predictions — including a shift towards turning Helix more into a gaming PC than a console and consolidating everything under the Microsoft umbrella instead of using the Xbox branding — is on the horizon unless Xbox quickly manages to turn sentiment around. If Xbox can’t win back both consumer and investor confidence, then things just might keep getting worse for the brand until it has to transform into something different entirely.