I Have an Avater 4 Theory That Makes Perfect Sense (And I’m Worried We’ll Never See It)

With the success of Avatar back in 2009, when James Cameron’s passion project became the highest-grossing movie of all time, it cleared a path for one of the biggest science fiction franchises of all time. It would take years for Cameron to finally release a sequel to the movie, with the release dates for Avatar 2 and 3 routinely pushed around by 20th Century Fox (and eventually Disney after they bought the company). Despite those delays, plans were put in motion for even more Avatar than that, with Avatars 4 and 5 confirmed all the way back in 2016. Now, here we sit in 2025, and Avatar: Fire and Ash (the third film) has finally been released.

Though the continued adventures of the Sully family and the world of Pandora seemed like a guarantee at one point, James Cameron began to sow doubt ahead of the release of Fire and Ash. The filmmaker began to tease what he would do with the series if the third film failed to meet expectations or not bring in an audience, claiming he’d write a book to tie up the loose ends, eventually revealing that he had other stories and pursuits he’d like to try after Avatar. All of which is a shame, because there’s clearly a major story that Avatar 4 could tell, and now we may never get it. Spoilers for Avatar: Fire and Ash will follow.

Read Next

Avatar: Fire and Ash Is the Return of the Jedi of the Franchise, For Better and Worse (Review)

Avatar 4 Could Deal With Earth Responding to Fire and Ash

The ending of Avatar: Fire and Ash leaves only a few lingering plot threads for future movies to explore. Colonel Miles Quaritch (Stephen Lang) seemingly jumps to his death, but not before noting that he’s “hard to kill,” setting up the potential return of the franchise antagonist once again if they so choose. Couple that with Varang (Oona Chaplin) just exiting the movie from stage left with very little fanfare, and two major enemies are waiting in the wings on Pandora for a potential fourth movie. The biggest enemy and narrative worth exploring with the next movie, though, is elsewhere, back on Earth.

A key component of Avatar: Fire and Ash is that Spider has his entire biology reworked, allowing him not only to breathe the toxic air of Pandora but to grow a neural queue so he can bond with the animals and plants of the planet (including letting him commune with the ancestors like all of the Na’vi). One of the only key components of Avatar: The Way of Water that Fire and Ash fails to pick up on really is the reveal from General Frances Ardmore that Earth is dying, and the RDA is looking to completely terraform Pandora. Fire and Ash does note that if the humans learn of Spider’s biological transformation, it will totally change their plans, and after he’s captured, they learn the truth.

Luckily, Spider escapes well before they can learn the secrets of his transformation or figure out how to replicate it. Assuming the RDA is still in contact with Earth, and they’re routinely bringing in more and more people (the expansion of the RDA’s Bridgehead City from the 2009 movie to Fire and Ash seems to allude to this), it only makes sense that the reveal of Spider has been communicated back to their home world. Fire and Ash also ends well before we can see any further development on this, which makes me certain that Avatar 4 would be about this plot specifically.

James Cameron has already confirmed that Avatar 4 will have a bit of a time jump, only after showing the young Sully family members at their current ages once again. The filmmaker previously revealed the movie will then leap ahead eight years, though he has not offered a tease for what the actual plot will be. In the first Avatar film, it’s revealed that Jack Sully was in cryosleep for over five years while traveling from Earth to Pandora. With an eight-year time span separating the events of both The Way of Water/Fire and Ash and Avatar 4, that’s a lot of time for reinforcements from Earth to gear up and make their way to Pandora.

Before his death, Avatar franchise producer Jon Landau confirmed that plans were in place for Avatar 4 and 5 to include scenes on Earth, a location not technically seen in any of the movies yet. There has to be an extra hook though, as simply “more people coming to Pandora from Earth” isn’t really enough of a plot, but if the Avatar sequels have proven anything this far, it’s that Cameron’s plans for the sequels are ambitious and full of ideas. Hopefully, we actually get to see them in action with Avatar, currently set for a 2029 release.