Steven Spielberg Narrowly Avoided Losing His Box Office Crown to A Rival Sci-Fi King (& 2026 Will Extend His Reign)

James Cameron has four $1 billion blockbusters under his belt, so it would be understandable if most movie fans considered him to be the king of the box office. After all, Cameron has directed three members of the ultra rare $2 billion worldwide club. Despite that success, Cameron surprisingly is not the highest-grossing director of all time. That honor belongs to one of Cameron’s most prominent contemporaries: Steven Spielberg. Over the course of his career, Spielberg’s 37 directorial efforts have collectively grossed $10.723 billion at the global box office (via The Numbers). Cameron isn’t that far behind, however, as his 15 directing credits have combined to earn $10.035 billion.

It’s a close race, and Spielberg’s record could have been broken if Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash had performed more in line with its predecessors. The $1.323 billion Fire and Ash has earned (as of this writing) isn’t anything to sneeze at, but it’s lagging behind the first two Avatar movies, both of which easily cleared the $2 billion mark. If Fire and Ash had reached that same milestone, Cameron would have passed Spielberg on the all-time charts. As it stands, Spielberg is going to extend his lead this summer, but there’s a chance Cameron will eventually overtake him.

Steven Spielberg’s Box Office Lead Will Grow Thanks to Disclosure Day

Though he’ll turn 80 years old later this year, Spielberg remains active, helming big-scale productions. His next film has the potential to be the next slice of classic Spielbergian cinematic magic. In what’s shaping up to be a banner year for sci-fi, Spielberg’s Disclosure Day is one of the most intriguing titles on the release schedule. Telling a story that seems to revolve around UFOs, the film finds Spielberg tackling familiar territory, though Disclosure Day feels different from his earlier works. The movie’s first trailer conveyed feelings of awe and paranoia while showcasing exciting set pieces.

By virtue of Disclosure Day‘s June release date, Spielberg’s lead over Cameron will increase in a matter of months. What remains to be seen is how large the gap will grow. While Spielberg’s name still carries a lot of clout within the industry, he isn’t as big of a box office draw as he was earlier in his career, when blockbusters like Jaws, E.T. – the Extra-Terrestrial, and Jurassic Park were breaking records. Since he helmed his fourth and final Indiana Jones installment in 2008, only one of Spielberg’s films (out of nine) has crossed $500 million worldwide: Ready Player One, which grossed $607.8 million.

The Adventures of Tintin made $373.9 million and Lincoln brought in $275.2 million. No other Spielberg movies have hit even $200 million in nearly two decades. Some of that has to do with the types of films Spielberg has made since Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. He’s helmed a lot of “smaller” dramas like Bridge of Spies ($165.4 million), War Horse ($177.5 million), and The Post ($193.7 million), which were designed more to contend for awards than break box office records. And when you factor in their smaller budgets, these all went down as commercial successes. Of course, this post-Kingdom of the Crystal Skull run also includes genre pictures like The BFG ($199.6 million), which struggled to click with audiences. Spielberg’s name alone is sometimes no longer enough to bring people to the theater.

Disclosure Day is being positioned as a summer movie season event film, so it’s clear Universal has high hopes for its box office prospects. A big-budget sci-fi film certainly has more widespread commercial appeal than a historical drama. Odds are, Disclosure Day will fare much better than Spielberg’s The Fabelmans ($45.6 million) and West Side Story ($76 million) thanks to its genre elements, but it’ll still be interesting to see how it pans out. Shortened theatrical windows and streaming have made it easier than ever to wait for new releases to come out on home media. It’s become increasingly difficult for non-IP films to stand out at the box office. Disclosure Day will need strong word of mouth and a FOMO factor so people feel compelled to see it on the big screen as soon as possible.

How James Cameron Can Beat Steven Spielberg’s Box Office Record

Like Spielberg, Cameron is in his 70s and still very much active behind the camera. With three Avatar movies under his belt, the director has plans for two more installments, plus there are other projects he’d like to pursue. Assuming he doesn’t surprise anyone and announces his retirement, odds are Cameron will eventually pass Spielberg’s career box office earnings. Just one more Avatar film alone could push him past Spielberg. The franchise’s box office viability took a bit of a hit with Fire and Ash (relatively speaking, of course), but it would be reasonable to assume that Avatar 4 would cross the $1 billion plateau. That would raise Cameron’s total to over $11 billion. Depending on how far it goes, that could be enough to top Spielberg, whose box office receipts should also total over $11 billion by the time Disclosure Day has finished its box office run. If it matches Ready Player One‘s haul, Spielberg’s mark will be in excess of $11.3 billion.

Avatar 4 currently has a scheduled release date of 2029, but it remains to be seen if it actually comes out then. In the build-up to Fire and Ash‘s premiere, Cameron was quite frank when addressing the future of the Avatar franchise. He hinted that Avatar 4 could be put on hold as he figures out a way to produce the sci-fi epics more efficiently. How quickly the next installment comes to fruition seemingly depends on Fire and Ash‘s profit margin. Again, most people would be thrilled if their movie grossed $1.3 billion, but Avatar is an entirely different beast in terms of box office performance. Falling so short of the numbers set by its predecessors, Cameron could be inclined to wait until he irons out a new approach, meaning Spielberg would hold on to his record for a handful more years at least. There’s also the outside chance that Avatar 4 doesn’t happen at all, though Disney will probably want to keep things going after Fire and Ash made $1 billion.

There’s also a scenario where Avatar 4 gets the green light, but Cameron still doesn’t break Spielberg’s record. Someone else could be calling the shots from behind the camera. Cameron has discussed this possibility in the past; his preference would be to direct Avatar 4 and Avatar 5, but he understands it’s smart to have a contingency plan in the event he’s unable to make the two films for any reason. It is important to mention that at this time, Cameron has not officially stepped back as Avatar director. This is just something that could plausibly happen. If Cameron decides he needs to take a break from making sci-fi epics and recharge his creative batteries, but Disney wants to meet the 2029 release date, then Avatar 4‘s gross might go on someone else’s resume.

Of course, Cameron found a way to turn a three-hour period piece romance/disaster film into a record-shattering blockbuster once upon a time, so he may not even need Avatar to break Spielberg’s all-time mark. He’s mentioned he has “other stories to tell” and doesn’t plan on being so “hands-on” with every part of the Avatar process moving forward. Perhaps as his colleagues get to work on Avatar 4 pre-production, Cameron will turn his attention to Ghosts of Hiroshima or some other film he has in the works, and that could be the one that catapults him over Spielberg. Depending on how big Disclosure Day is, Cameron is probably going to need a fifth $1 billion film, but as we’ve seen time and time again, you should never doubt James Cameron at the box office.

What do you think? Leave a comment below and join the conversation now in the ComicBook Forum!

Every James Cameron Movie, Ranked From Worst to Best