Avatar: Fire and Ash Box Office Projections Are Lower Than The Way of Water

History has shown that it is unwise to doubt James Cameron at the box office. Multiple times, there have been question marks surrounding his films, and not only did they prove to be successful, they became some of the highest-grossing movies of all time. Three of Cameron’s films are part of the rare $2 billion box office club, including the first two installments of the Avatar franchise. With that impressive track record in mind, many have been curious to see how this December’s Avatar: Fire and Ash fares during its theatrical run. Going into the holiday season, it seemed like a safe bet to cross the $1 billion milestone, and now there are some projections.

According to Variety, Fire and Ash is estimated to post an opening weekend in the range of $90-105 million domestically. The global debut is projected to reach $340-365 million. While those figures are undoubtedly impressive, they are below what Avatar: The Way of Water earned three years ago. The first Avatar sequel opened with $134.1 million domestically and $441.7 million worldwide. Though, Fire and Ash is projected to surpass the original Avatar, which opened with $77 million in the United States and $241.6 million globally.

Can Avatar: Fire and Ash Exceed Box Office Projections?

It perhaps isn’t surprising to see that the Fire and Ash box office estimates are lower than The Way of Water. The word of mouth has not been quite as enthusiastic when compared to the other two Avatar films. Critics still believe Fire and Ash is worth checking out on the big screen (nobody does cinematic spectacle like James Cameron), but the franchise has lost a bit of its novelty. The most common critique in Fire and Ash reviews is that it retreads too much ground in terms of the story, and that sense of familiarity hurts it. That reception could impact people’s decision to go to the theater.

Fire and Ash represents a different kind of box office test for the Avatar franchise. It’s the first time a new installment has arrived relatively quickly after its direct predecessor. The extended wait for The Way of Water became a punchline in some circles, but the film benefited from that big gap. Arriving 13 years after the first Avatar, The Way of Water felt new and exciting; obviously, it wasn’t the same as when the first Avatar came out, but it was still exciting to go back to Pandora after all that time and see how the filmmaking technology had evolved over the years. Fire and Ash premieres just three years later, and it’ll be interesting to see if there’s as big of an appetite for Avatar now.

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There have been several titles this year that surpassed their initial box office projections (illustrating how difficult it is to predict opening weekends in the post-pandemic era), and Fire and Ash could be the latest to do so if things break right. For starters, it isn’t facing much in the way of direct competition. It’s undoubtedly the biggest release of the Christmas season, and it has enough separation from the juggernaut Zootopia 2 (which has been raking in cash since Thanksgiving week). This is also one blockbuster film that truly benefits from the theatrical experience. The age of streaming has made it easier for people to wait to watch new releases at home, but it’s impossible to replicate IMAX 3D in your living room. If people want the full effect of Avatar: Fire and Ash, they’re going to have to make the trip to the multiplex, which could give the box office numbers a boost.

People will pay close attention to how Avatar: Fire and Ash performs at the box office, especially since Cameron has made a point of saying the profit margin could determine whether or not Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 get made. The odds of Fire and Ash bombing are very low, but it’s also hard to guarantee any film will gross $2 billion worldwide — especially in today’s theatrical climate. Seeing that Fire and Ash is projected for a worse start than Way of Water may not bode well for Avatar‘s future, but it’s important to keep in mind the first two installments demonstrated very strong box office legs. Opening weekend is not the end all be all here.

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