As Captain America: Brave New World gears up for its opening weekend, the latest box office projections are slightly lower than the initial estimates. However, the latest installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is still expected to be a massive draw. According to Variety, current estimates peg Brave New World for a debut between $80-85 million domestically during its first three days. Over the extended Presidents’ Day holiday weekend, that figure should increase to somewhere between $90-95 million. Brave New World is also expected to get a boost from international markets with an estimated $110 million haul from foreign territories.
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Brave New World is all but guaranteed to score 2025’s highest opening weekend. When compared to the MCU’s other Captain America films, its projected three-day start would be above 2011’s The First Avenger ($65 million) but below The Winter Soldier ($95 million) and Captain America: Civil War ($179.1 million).
In mid-January, the original tracking for Brave New World‘s box office suggested a little more money was set to come Marvel’s way. At that point, $86-95 million was the range for the three-day weekend and $100+ million was the expectation for the holiday weekend. Shortly after those estimates came out, Disney kicked the Brave New World marketing campaign into high gear; tickets went on sale back on January 17th.
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As the first high-profile studio tentpole of 2025, Brave New World is hoping to give the box office a shot in the arm. The year has gotten off to a relatively sluggish start, with few new releases making much of an impact. Animated film Dog Man has won the previous two weekends, but that title saw a substantial drop in ticket sales last week; after opening strong, it didn’t have any legs.
Brave New World isn’t in any danger of bombing (its production budget is reportedly lower when compared to other Marvel movies), but it’s still surprising that the most recent projections are lower than the estimates from January. There haven’t been many notable releases since the holiday season, and 2025 promises to be a big year for the MCU with Thunderbolts* and The Fantastic Four: First Steps still to come. Perhaps the estimates are a byproduct of the current state of the MCU. Deadpool & Wolverine notwithstanding, the franchise has experienced its ups and downs the past couple of years; the likes of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and The Marvels disappointed at the box office, and the Multiverse Saga hasn’t generated as much widespread enthusiasm as the Infinity Saga before it. Based on how some recent projects turned out, Marvel is in a spot where it needs to re-earn audience trust, which will allow viewers to get really excited about MCU blockbusters again.
Of course, it’s important to keep in mind these are still estimates. There’s always the possibility Brave New World can exceed expectations, especially if word-of-mouth is strong. Positive reviews and reactions could go a long way in helping the movie reach the high end of its projections. And while it doesn’t look like Brave New World is going to break any records, it’s set up to have a fruitful run. It won’t be facing much direct competition for the first several weeks of its release, so this should be another hit for Marvel.
