Fantastic Four Wins Box Office in Second Weekend (but There’s Bad News)

The Fantastic Four: First Steps is set to win its second consecutive weekend at the box office, but Marvel might have a more muted celebration at the office. According to Deadline, First Steps is currently projected to gross around $40 million domestically over the weekend after taking in $11.7 million on Friday, August 1st. That would be a fairly steep decline for the blockbuster — a 66% drop from its debut. That figure is in the same ballpark as Captain America: Brave New World (68% drop) and a stark contrast when compared to Thunderbolts* (56%) and Superman (53%).

If these estimates hold, The Fantastic Four: First Steps will stand at $198.4 million domestically by the end of the weekend. It would be on the verge of topping the North American totals for both Thunderbolts* ($190.1 million) and Captain America: Brave New World ($200.5 million), quickly becoming the MCU’s highest-grossing title of the year domestically.

Bolstered by positive word of mouth (including a Certified Fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes), The Fantastic Four: First Steps actually exceeded box office expectations during its debut. It earned $117 million domestically and $216 million globally. While those numbers were slightly below what Superman pulled in its opening, First Steps still marked a much-needed win for Marvel Studios at the box office. Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts* underwhelmed, becoming two of the lowest-grossing installments in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

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First Steps Replaces a Major Fantastic Four Character (& It’s for the Best)

The Fantastic Four: First Steps was a very important project for Marvel as it builds towards the conclusion of the Multiverse Saga. Stars Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach are all set to reprise their roles in Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars. Reports have also indicated Marvel is in the early stages of developing a Fantastic Four sequel, suggesting the characters are part of Kevin Feige’s plan as he looks to the MCU’s next era.

A strong debut is obviously important for a studio tentpole, but the real test comes in subsequent weekends. Blockbusters like Marvel movies can be front-loaded, with grosses driven by excited die-hard fans who have been anticipating the film for months. How well a tentpole holds reveals what kind of legs it will have. First Steps is more of a mixed bag in that regard. It’s eye-catching to see it have such a steeper drop than Thunderbolts* and Superman, two other well-received comic book adaptations that are also Certified Fresh. This development illustrates how the box office landscape has changed over the past handful of years. Back in the 2010s, a Marvel movie with positive reviews would have strong legs. Now, the allure of shortened theatrical windows and streaming makes it easier to wait. Thunderbolts* and Brave New World were hits at home, suggesting people haven’t lost interest in the MCU — they’ve just changed how they consume it.

If The Fantastic Four: First Steps continues on its current trajectory and falls even further in its third weekend (which is very likely, as Freakier Friday and Weapons join The Bad Guys 2 and The Naked Gun to give viewers a wide range of options), it lends further credence to Marvel’s decision to alter how it conducts business. As the studio plots out its film slate post-Secret Wars, it’s reportedly targeting younger, relatively unknown actors for the X-Men reboot, which would allow Marvel to keep production costs in check. Smaller budgets mean films don’t have to break the bank to turn a profit. Marvel could also limit which characters headline movies moving forward, giving those projects to characters guaranteed to drive ticket sales for weeks.