Dune 2 and Wicked Both Got a Ton of Oscar Nominations (But Will Either Win Best Picture?)

Dune: Part Two and Wicked scored several Oscar nominations this year; both critically acclaimed blockbusters are among the 10 movies up for Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards. Outside of its nod for the top prize, Dune: Part Two found success in key technical categories, snagging nominations for Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, Best Cinematography, and Best Production Design. Curiously, it only received five total nominations. Its predecessor, 2021’s Dune: Part One, earned 10.

Meanwhile, Wicked, the first part of director Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the hit musical, received 10 nominations. It tied with Brady Corbet’s drama The Brutalist as the second-most nominated film this year (only Emilia Pérez had more, with 13). Other than Best Picture, Wicked scored nods for Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Original Score, Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Actress (Cynthia Erivo), and Best Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande).

Dune: Part Two and Wicked have consistently picked up significant accolades throughout awards season, which made them likely Best Picture contenders. Both titles were recently nominated for the Darryl F. Zanuck Award, which is the Producer Guild’s version of Best Picture. The films also found success at the Golden Globes; Dune: Part Two was nominated for Best Picture, Drama and Wicked was up for Best Picture, Musical or Comedy. However, both lost, as The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez took home the awards.

[RELATED – Hans Zimmer Weighs in on Dune: Part Two’s Score Being Oscar Ineligible]

The 97th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on Sunday, March 2nd. Back in November 2024, it was announced that Conan O’Brien will host the show. This will be O’Brien’s first time hosting the Oscars. Jimmy Kimmel hosted the previous two years.

Now that the nominations have been announced, the conversation will shift to which films have the best chance to win. Between Dune: Part Two and Wicked, the latter arguably has better odds. It scored double the amount of nominations, including two acting categories. Wicked‘s Best Editing nod is also a good harbinger since historically, there’s a strong correlation between Editing and Picture. Dune: Part Two did not garner as much support as the first Dune, suggesting it has an uphill climb to win Best Picture. Its best hope may be to secure one or two of its tech noms, perhaps repeating Dune: Part One‘s win in Best Visual Effects. Of course, this doesn’t mean Wicked is a frontrunner. The Golden Globes results imply awards voters prefer some of the other films in the running.

To be fair, the Golden Globes doesn’t have a perfect track record when it comes to predicting the Oscars; while Oppenheimer won Best Picture at the Globes, Everything Everywhere All at Once did not. So there’s hope for Wicked (more so than Dune: Part Two), but the Best Picture field is stacked with stiff competition. Besides The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez, the likes of Anora, Conclave, The Substance, A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, and I’m Still Here have generated much enthusiasm throughout awards season. The Best Picture race probably won’t gain clarity until more of the Oscar precursors have been handed out. It will be interesting to see how the Academy’s preferential ballot impacts the category. A widely liked film such as Wicked could score key second- and third-place votes, putting it in position to secure a win. But other nominees fit that bill as well.