89th Academy Awards Predictions

Tonight marks one of the biggest celebrations in Hollywood as the 89th Academy Awards descends upon Los Angeles. Although many awards ceremonies have already celebrated film but everyone knows that the Academy Award is the one that matters most.

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La La Land leads the pack with 13 nominations, which its bound to score at least one of, but there aren’t many clear frontrunners. From alien encounters in Arrival to the coming-of-age Moonlight, from untold historic stories in Hidden Figures to the neo-Western Hell or High Water, many different genres are represented.

Audiences won’t know who will take top honors for a few more hours, but based on the Academy’s history and how they compare to other awards shows, we have a few predictions.

Check out our guesses at who will win an Oscar and let us know who you think will win in the comments!

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Best Original Screenplay – Manchester by the Sea

The Bet Original Screenplay category features many different types of film, but Manchester by the Sea most deftly navigated both humor and drama, making it feel like a sure thing. All of the other films nominated have fantastic scripts, but the oddball Lobster lacks the heart that the typically Academy voter would be looking for.

Nominees

Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

[H/T YouTube, Movieclips Trailers]

Best Adapted Screenplay – Hidden Figures

Hidden Figures is an incredibly important story that more people need to know about. The untold tale of the women responsible for confirming NASA calculations to send a man to the moon is something every generation of moviegoers needs to know about, but it lacks a certain weight that to earn it any other awards tonight.

Nominees

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

[H/T YouTube, 20th Century Fox]

Best Supporting Actress – Viola Davis (Fences)

Of tonight’s “sure things,” this is one of only a few. Many people were stunned to discover Davis was nominated for Supporting Actress instead of Actress, but considering her performance and who she was potentially going up against, Davis had a 99% chance of winning this instead of the bigger gamble of the Actress award.

Nominees

Viola Davis, Fences

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

[H/T YouTube, Zero Media]

Best Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

Sadly, this is not Michael Shannon’s year to win an Oscar, despite his riveting performance in Nocturnal Animals. Had any of these actors known they’d have to go up against Ali’s performance in Moonlight, they might’ve asked for a year off. As much as Davis was a lock for Supporting Actress, Ali’s compelling performance is an absolute win.

Nominees

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Dev Patel, Lion
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

[H/T YouTube, A24]

Best Director – Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

More often than not, the Best Director will go to the same movie as Best Picture, which is why we think Chazelle will take home the gold. His biggest competition is Barry Jenkins for Moonlight, the intimate exploration of a man’s homosexuality, but the two films are vastly different. It’s tough to say that an ode to musicals has the same weight as a story told of one man’s struggle with sexual identity, so we hope that both films receive honors. If Jenkins takes home the gold, it could be a result of newer Academy members who know how important it is to highlight many different types of film and not award everything to one competitor.

Nominees

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

[H/T YouTube, Lionsgate Movies]

Best Actress – Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

One of the most diverse groups of nominees, all actresses have earned acclaim for all of their portrayals. Streep’s performance is far from the best, but we wouldn’t at all be surprised if, rather than being forced to decide on a single performance, many Academy members just default to Streep as the safe bet.

Nominees

Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

[H/T YouTube, Movieclips Trailers]

Best Actor – Denzel Washington

Much like Streep and her previous wins, it’s tough to compete with the most applauded performers of all time. Affleck is the biggest threat and there’s been a surge of support for Mortensen, but it’s tough to compete with Denzel.

Nominees

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Picture – La La Land

Hollywood will never grow tired of celebrating how wonderful it is, which makes La La Land the frontrunner. Last year, The Revenant and all of its spectacle took home the Best Director award while the more subtle a nuanced Spotlight won Best Picture, so it’s possible the Academy might follow the same formula and split the decision of the year’s best films between La La Land and Moonlight. Then again, considering this is the last award handed out, there could be some serious surprises in store for us.

Nominees

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight