Analysts Say Loot Boxes Aren't Stopping Players From Buying Games

Loot boxes and microtransactions in video games are constantly met with disapproval and claims that they're an instant turn-off for a game, but an NPD analyst says that the pesky purchases aren't deterring gamers as much as outspoken voices might indicate.

Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz, Mat Piscatella, an NPD analyst who specializes in U.S. games, said that there's really not much impact being felt by AAA games when they include loot boxes and microtransactions. Piscatella highlighted the success of Destiny 2, a game that contains microtransactions, as one example of a top-dollar game that obviously wasn't affected by microtransactions since it's become the best-selling game so far this year.

Conversely, Piscatella also said that the fact that a loot box or similar feature is in a game isn't a guarantee that it will do well either.

"I would not say that the presence of loot boxes causes games to sell at higher levels than games without loot boxes," Piscatella told GamesIndustry.biz. "What [this week's] release does suggest is that the loot box or microtransactions controversy has not yet resulted in clear noticeable limitations of the sales potential of the games with [those mechanics]."

However, there does appear to be one noticeable trend when looking at which games include these transactions. Among all of the popular games that are released through massive developers and go on to perform well, Piscatella said that these titles find ways to keep players invested long after they're done with other games. Player engagement is also a key part of keeping these players involved, something that big-name franchises like Call of Duty have managed to do in the past.

Regarding these AAA games and their loot boxes, Piscatella also said that the presence of these items typically correlate to a higher sales volume. He then expanded on the statement with the following:

"As every stats professor has ever declared correlation does not necessarily mean causation. It could just be that the biggest games with the highest marketing budgets tend to have these mechanics, and that the games are selling well despite the presence of loot boxes in the games."

The sales over the holidays with more AAA games being released with loot boxes will likely give a better indication of loot boxes' impact, but for now, it looks as though players are buying their favorite games as much as ever.