Captain America: Brave New World Is Facing Some of the Biggest Challenges Ever for a Marvel Movie

Captain America: Brave New World will kick off a year of “back to form” Marvel movie blockbusters when it is released on Valentine’s Day. There was a time when a new Marvel Studios film release was a guaranteed hit at the box office, but now those days are long gone. The MCU brand has a lot of tarnish on it; despite Deadpool & Wolverine giving Marvel movies renewed hope that a billion-dollar box office is possible, that movie was a one-off event film. Proof that moviegoers are still invested in the larger interconnected storyline of the MCU will only come with the release of Captain America: Brave New World, and as that theatrical release date approaches, the film is facing an almost perfect storm of challenges that it must overcome.

The MCU’s Comeback Kid

As stated, Captain America: Brave New World is the first film that will be a major litmus test of the MCU’s current brand strength. Deadpool & Wolverine was Marvel Studios’ only major film release in 2024; that aside, theatergoers haven’t had a chance to check in with the primary characters and storylines of the main MCU continuity since 2023, which saw films like The Marvels and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania finally push fans to a breaking point with the post-Endgame decline of MCU, while Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 3 closed the door on one of the only successful franchises still around. To call it a low point for the MCU would be an understatement.

Brave New World is about to kick off a run of pivotal Marvel movies in 2025, with Thunderbolts* and Fantastic Four: First Steps both set to release in theaters during the summer and fall (respectively). All three films represent a critical point for Marvel Studios; the studio spent the last year on a PR blitz, letting the world know (through interviews, public events like San Diego Comic-Con, and trade new features) that the “righting of the ship” was underway with the return of Disney CEO Bob Iger. The 2025 Marvel movie slate will be a direct testament to whether or not that’s true: Brave New World will test if veteran MCU properties and characters are still viable; Fantastic Four will test if new franchise launches are still possible, and Thunderbolts* will actually be a mix of both. But being the first ship out on those still choppy waters is certainly a risk for Captain America 4.

Box Office vs. Budget

Speaking of risk: Captain America: Brave New World is not just facing big risk from a brand perspective – the box office risks are also considerable. To keep things within a comparable window: Captain America: The Winter Soldier had an approximate budget of $170-180 million, and ended up taking in $714.4 million at the worldwide box office. Brave New World has a reported budget that’s upwards of $180 million (maybe more, given all the reshoots), so that’s already a high bar to match, in terms of box office returns.

And yet, it’s the story behind the budget and the reshoots that needs to be focused on, here. While never confirmed, it was rumored that Marvel Studios’ reshoots on Brave New World (which took place in the first half of 2024) were corrective measures, after poor initial test screenings. Marvel fans know that reshoots on these big tentpole MCU films can lead to some drastic shifts (see below), which can often prevent the film from ever feeling a cohesive whole, let alone a good movie. Hopefully, the corrective measures on Captain America 4 were actually corrective.

[RELATED: MCU Movies That Changed Drastically in Reshoots]

The Ghost of Steve Rogers (Chris Evans)

This gets a little bit more personal, but it does need to be addressed; Captain America: Brave New World will be something of a contest between the bankability of two actors: Anthony Mackie and Chris Evans. Evans’ Steve Rogers earned his way to a billion-dollar box office with Captain America: Civil War only after enduring the divisive launch that was Captain America: The First Avenger, and the slow-burn success and solo franchise boost earned by The Winter Soldier. However, by the time Phase 3 of the MCU was underway, Chris Evans’ Steve Rogers/Captain America was a bonafide box office draw and a mainstay of the franchise.

Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson has been in the MCU since that famous “On your left!” opening scene of The Winter Soldier, but he’s admittedly been far from being a franchise mainstay. Mackie has racked up a considerable amount of MCU appearances (2 Captain America movies, 3 Avengers movies, his own Falcon and the Winter Soldier TV series, an Ant-Man movie cameo, and animated voicework for Marvel’s What If….?), but has never been in the leading man spot (at least not alone). Behind the scenes, Anthony Mackie – for all the fame and acclaim he’s rightfully earned over the last 20+ years as a movie actor – is still an unknown factor when it comes to being a box office draw. There’s currently no solid proof that a Mackie-led film will draw a big audience, based on name recognition alone. In fact, Marvel Studios’ February release date for Captain America: Brave New World (Black History Month) suggests that the studio prefers to lean more into the idea of the African-American Captain America becoming a cultural phenomenon – much like Black Panther was at the February box office back in 2018.

Comparisons between Chris Evans and Anthony Mackie as Captain America are going to be inevitable. Mackie now has the unenviable challenge of having to prove his version of the character to a highly-charged global audience.

[RELATED: Chris Evans Agrees With Anthony Mackie’s Captain America Comments]

Cultural Lightning Rod

Less than a month out from release day (at the time of writing this), Captain America: Brave New World is already a cultural lightning rod, caught up in a storm of controversy.

Story elements glimpsed in trailers like a Black Captain America or a president who becomes a “Red” Hulk villain have been all that’s needed for trolls and socio-political opportunists to pounce. Brave New World is already being held up as a symbolic example of all the most contentious cultural hot-button terms of the last year (DEI, wokeness, government corruption, abuse of power – general debate about the history and nature of this nation), and there’s a growing drumbeat of those who are trying to boycott the film as an act of political theater — or (worse) means of generating social media clout by stoking both the political and Marvel algorithms of social media engagement. It’s an increasing (and unfair) trend with major franchise tentpole releases like Marvel, DC, and Star Wars, but unfortunately, it looks to be an entrenched part of the modern marketing/PR game with these movies.

Anthony Mackie is quickly finding out just how hard of a fight this film has ahead of it, as even off-the-cuff comments he made during a Brave New World press event have gone super-viral as the latest “controversial” soundbite echoing across political media. Now commentators and onlookers who don’t know their Doctor Strange from their Doctor Doom are suddenly weighing in with opinions about Captain America: Brave New World, and what its merits are (or are not). That kind of cultural exposure is making the film something more than just a movie release: it’s looking like it could be one of the biggest, earliest litmus tests (and potential victims) of the new socio-political order sweeping in, with a clear target already being painted on its back.

Can Captain America: Brave New World still overcome all these challenges, herald a new era of Anthony Mackie’s career, and a much-needed return to form for Marvel Studios? Sure, but it will have to fight like hell to get there.

Captain America: Brave New World has a release date of February 14th.