While Captain America: Brave New World is projected to remain in first place at the box office this weekend, it is also poised to have one of the steepest drops in history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. According to Deadline, Brave New World is estimated to bring in around $28 million domestically during its second weekend, which would be a substantial 68% decline from its debut. While that hold is stronger than the drop-offs seen by Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (70%) and The Marvels (78%), it still ranks near the bottom when compared to all of the titles in the franchise.
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There are a handful of MCU films in the same ballpark as Captain America: Brave New World, as they dropped somewhere in the 67-67.8% range. This group includes Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (67%), Spider-Man: No Way Home (67.5%), Thor: Love and Thunder (67.7%), and Black Widow (67.8%). Depending on how Brave New World performs over the rest of the weekend, it could end up with the MCU’s third-lowest drop of all time.
Captain America: Brave New World easily posted the biggest opening weekend of the year so far, grossing $100 million domestically over the extended Presidents’ Day weekend. However, from the jump, there were indications it would not be one of the MCU’s top earners. Its haul from preview screenings was lower than Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, setting the stage for a relatively underwhelming debut. Brave New World received mixed word of mouth, which negatively impacted its box office prospects.
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Due to those factors, the expectation was that Brave New World would be front-loaded. Going into the weekend, projections indicated it would gross about $30+ million. Brave New World sports a production budget of around $180 million, a figure that’s actually much smaller than most recent Marvel movies.
While Brave New World should still be able to turn a profit by the end of its theatrical run, this is still a disappointing development for Marvel. The project is fairly important within the overall framework of the Multiverse Saga, establishing Sam Wilson as the next leader of the Avengers. Though Anthony Mackie’s performance in the leading role was praised as one of the film’s highlights, Marvel and Disney were likely hoping for a much stronger turnout, building excitement for the MCU’s future. In the post-Endgame era, many of the franchise’s offerings have struggled to make a sizable impact, forcing Disney to scale back on productions as it tries to get its prized property back on track. Any hopes that Brave New World would mark the beginning of a turnaround have been dashed.
Captain America: Brave New World might be able to hold on to the No. 1 position for a third straight week, as there aren’t any high-profile titles releasing next weekend. After that, though, it’ll probably start its slide down the charts, with Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 (already earning enthusiastic reviews) on the horizon in early March. Fortunately for Marvel, there are still plenty of opportunities to bounce back later this year. Thunderbolts* looks like it could be a fun crowd-pleaser to kick off the summer movie season, while The Fantastic Four: First Steps is generating a lot of buzz. Hopefully, Brave New World will just be a blip on the radar of an otherwise highly successful 2025 for the franchise.
