In 2013, The Conjuring was released, kicking off one of this era’s signature horror franchises. That original film was a massive hit, grossing $319.4 million worldwide against a $20 million production budget. The success of the first Conjuring spawned not only a series of direct follow-ups, but also numerous spinoffs, with titles like The Nun, Annabelle, and The Curse of La Llorona clicking with horror fans over the years. Now, an era in the franchise’s rich history is about to come to a close, as The Conjuring: Last Rites is gearing up for its release this weekend. The film is positioned as seemingly the last time Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson will portray paranormal investigators Lorraine and Ed Warren, making it a significant event. That extra bit of fanfare seems to have helped the movie’s box office prospects.
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According to Deadline, The Conjuring: Last Rites is projected to make $40+ million domestically in its opening weekend. The worldwide debut is estimated to be around $80 million. The domestic projections put Last Rites on track to potentially score the biggest United States debut for a mainline Conjuring film; The Conjuring opened with $41.8 million, while The Conjuring 2 debuted with $40.4 million. The franchise’s biggest opening ever in the U.S. was spinoff The Nun, which earned $53.8 million.
Could The Conjuring: Last Rites Exceed Box Office Projections?
Unsurprisingly, horror has been one of the more lucrative genres at the box office this year, with the likes of Sinners, Final Destination Bloodlines, and Weapons all drawing large crowds. What’s notable is that all of these titles exceeded their initial box office estimates. Sinners and Weapons rode waves of enthusiastic word of mouth to $40+ million domestic debuts. Final Destination Bloodlines set a new franchise record with a $51.6 million opening, paving the way for a new Final Destination installment to get the green light.
Horror isn’t the only genre to exceed projections in 2025. Even big-budget studio tentpoles like Superman and The Fantastic Four: First Steps performed better than expected in their opening weekends. In a post-pandemic landscape, predicting the box office can be more complicated than in years past, so this trend of strong debuts raises the question of whether or not The Conjuring: Last Rites will follow suit.
Weapons has strung together a tremendous box office run, topping the charts in three out of its first four weekends (it settled for second when Kpop Demon Hunters had its limited theatrical engagement). So, there isn’t exactly a void for horror in the marketplace, which could impact The Conjuring: Last Rites‘ prospects. Still, The Conjuring is a recognizable and popular franchise, meaning there should be significant interest in seeing a final chapter on the big screen. Word of mouth for Last Rites isn’t as strong as Sinners or Weapons (it has a 65% score on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing), but the Conjuring franchise has pulled in a combined $2.2 billion worldwide despite several installments receiving mixed reviews. Critical response doesn’t influence ticket sales in this case.
Even if The Conjuring: Last Rites doesn’t surge past the projections (possibly topping The Nun‘s opening), it’s shaping up to be another major win at the box office for Warner Bros. The studio has rebounded nicely after a string of flops with six consecutive titles that earned $40+ million domestically in their opening weekend. Unless Last Rites unexpectedly disappoints, that streak should continue, sending this era of The Conjuring off on a high note.
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Image courtesy of Prokino Filmverleih
