Dune: Part Three Is Already Projected to Break a Major Box Office Record

With another summer movie season in the rearview window, the biggest cinematic event remaining on the calendar this year is “Dunesday” in December. As most are well aware, both Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday are scheduled to open on the same day during the always-busy holiday season. Anticipation is high for the two titles, and theaters are already making plans several months in advance. Ticket pre-sales for Doomsday are eclipsing the record-breaking Spider-Man: Brand New Day, suggesting the latest Marvel crossover could break some records of its own. For those worried that Avengers is going to completely overshadow Dune, Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic is doing very well for itself.

According to Global Box Office on X, Dune: Part Three earned around $10 million domestically during the first day of “wider pre-sales.” That’s a new best for the franchise, putting Dune: Part Three on pace to gross $100+ million domestically in its opening weekend. That would be the biggest debut for the franchise by a considerable margin:

Movie	Opening Weekend (Domestic)
Dune: Part Three	$100+ million (projection)
Dune: Part Two	$82.5 million
Dune	$41 million

Dunesday Can Be the Next Barbenheimer

For a period of time, people wondered if either Dune: Part Three or Avengers: Doomsday would move to avoid a direct head to head showdown at the box office, but both Warner Bros. and Disney are sticking to their guns. When it became clear that the two tentpoles were keeping the same release date, comparisons to the Barbenheimer phenomenon were made, which was understandable, but it wasn’t exactly an apples to apples situation. Part of the appeal of Barbenheimer was that Barbie and Oppenheimer seemed diametrically opposed on paper; one was a colorful fantasy comedy that put a unique spin on one of the most popular toy lines in history, the other was a dark three-hour biopic about the man who created the atomic bomb. These two projects had drastically different target audiences, so turning Barbenheimer into a double feature at the movies was a fun way for cinephiles to experience them.

In contrast, there’s seemingly more overlap between the target demographics for Dune: Part Three and Avengers: Doomsday. Both are sequels in popular sci-fi/fantasy franchises, so there conceivably was a greater chance of cannibalization at the box office. That’s what makes news of the Dune: Part Three projections so exciting. There’s still a long way to go before box office numbers come in, of course, but these early estimates are an encouraging sign that there will be plenty of room for both films to be very successful come December. Doomsday is going to gross more, but Dune: Part Three is by no means going to be a flop.

It’s easy to see why Dune: Part Three is poised to perform extremely well at the box office. Dune is one of the most critically acclaimed film series of the decade, earning high praise for its combination of compelling storytelling and big-screen spectacle. The first two installments generated a considerable amount of goodwill for the franchise, meaning sci-fi fans are excited to see the world expand. The promise that this is the epic conclusion of director Denis Villeneuve’s trilogy only adds to the anticipation, making Dune: Part Three a genuine event. This is why WB never blinked and backed away from Doomsday; even if Avengers is going to make more money, WB knew they had a winner on their hands.

Demand for Dune: Part Three tickets, particularly IMAX screenings, will remain quite high from now until December. It’ll be interesting to see how high the film’s opening is come Dunesday. Assuming it has similar word of mouth to its two predecessors and emerges as one of the contenders in the Oscar race, it might exceed expectations even with Doomsday as competition. We’ve seen in the past that great reviews and enthusiastic audience reactions can propel a film’s box office total to new heights. Dune: Part Three is shaping up to be a must-see on the biggest of screens, so perhaps opening weekend will be just the first record it breaks.

These 4 Dune: Part 3 Characters Could Be the Movie’s Biggest Scene-Stealers (None Are Paul)