Are We Sure Avengers: Doomsday Shouldn’t Be Scared of Dune 3?

Marvel, Warner Bros., and movie fans are all slowly heading towards “Dunesday,” the name given to December 18th, 2026, which will see the release of both Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part Three. Pretty much as soon as that scheduling was confirmed, it was expected that something would change. However, after the early Doomsday marketing and, more recently, the first trailer for Dune 3, it seems clear that neither side is willing to budge.

Conventional wisdom has generally been that it should be Denis Villeneuve’s movie that moves. While Dune: Part Three is one of the most anticipated movies of 2026, it’s going up against the return of the Avengers, a franchise that averages $1.9 billion at the box office across four movies, including the second-biggest film of all time in Avengers: Endgame. But, after four teasers for Doomsday, the trailer for Dune 3, and some jostling for position with IMAX screens, perhaps it should be Marvel who is worrying about Dune, rather than the other way around.

Avengers: Doomsday Will Be Bigger Than Dune 3 – But Could Be The One That Suffers More

To be clear, while there might be a world in which Dune 3 outgrosses Avengers: Doomsday, it is not this one. The lowest-grossing Avengers movie, 2015’s Age of Ultron, made $1.4bn, almost double Dune: Part Two‘s haul of $715m. Even repeating Age of Ultron‘s performance would be a little disappointing for Marvel, given the Avengers movies have become exponentionally bigger since then, so the expectation should be that the floor for the movie’s box office is even bigger than that (although the drop-off of Avatar: Fire & Ash, which earned $1.485bn compared to The Way of Water‘s $2.333bn, shows that Disney can’t take anything for granted).

But while that floor is secured, I think Dune 3 lowers Doomsday‘s ceiling more than the other way around. The Dune franchise is very much in its ascendency: the first film grossed $410.6m, but was hampered by the Covid-19 pandemic and a day-and-date release on HBO Max; the sequel earned $715m, and only boosted the franchise’s reputation. That really cemented it as a generational saga that demands to be experienced in a movie theater, something Dune 3, which is the conclusion to it (and being heavily marketed as such), is poised to massively capitalize on.

Read Next

Why Dune 3 Is the Final Movie When There Are Another 3 Books Left To Adapt

That reputation puts it in stark contrast with where the MCU is right now. Whereas Dune 3 is being sold as the final movie in what could go down as one of the best movie trilogies of the 21st Century (if not all time), the MCU has suffered significant reputational damage in the years since Endgame. Its five worst-rated movies on Rotten Tomatoes have all come in that time, and of its 10 lowest-grossing films, seven have been released this decade (though that is partly affected by the pandemic). It is far from bulletproof, and Dune 3 is going to be taking a big shot at it.

Dune: Part Three, which stars Timothée Chalamet (who, thanks to the likes of Wonka and Marty Supreme, has now proved himself a bona fide movie star draw), also holds the trump card of IMAX exclusivity for three weeks, which means it’ll hold that ground throughout the Christmas and New Year period. We’ve increasingly seen the popularity of IMAX and other Premium Large Formats for moviegoers, which fits with the idea of people turning out for something that’s really more of a true experience. This is, admittedly, something Dune needs more than Doomsday – around 20% of Dune 2‘s box office came from IMAX – but it also means Marvel risks losing out on a lot of money (Avengers: Endgame brought in over $200m from IMAX alone).

Marvel fans will, of course, want to hurry out and see Doomsday in order to avoid spoilers, especially with it set to be so heavy on returning actors and surprises, which doesn’t quite apply as much to Dune: Part Three, an adaptation of Frank Herbert’s 1969 novel, Dune Messiah (though it is likely to make plenty of changes). But Dune certainly looks and sounds far more exciting right now in a more general moviegoing sense, and if one of these is going to be the only choice for people, or to get repeat viewings (perhaps in different formats), it might be the better option.

It’s tempting to say that neither movie will win, as both are inevitably targeting mostly similar audiences (rather than the clearer split with Barbie and Oppenheimer). But Dune 3 doesn’t need to be a billion-dollar movie to be a massive hit; indeed, I don’t think it should be expected to hit that benchmark, and while Doomsday might impact it a little bit, it doesn’t seem like many people are going to be put off seeing it because of that. In contrast, more people might wait for Doomsday because of seeing Dune 3.

Read Next

Every Avengers: Doomsday Reveal in the First Four Trailers

The previous two Avengers movies both comfortably grossed over $2bn. Will Doomsday? And would it without Dune 3? That first is in question anyway, but it’s much more likely in the latter scenario. It stands to lose out on more, even if it is too late to move. The same may well be true of other releases around the same time – Jumanji 4 opens the week before (and has a strong box office track record), Robert Eggers’ Werwulf a week after, and both might struggle more because of opening against two juggernauts).

The winner in this, of course, should be audiences (and Florence Pugh, who is in both), but that it’s even a debate is a testament to what Villeneuve has achieved with Dune, and how far the MCU’s stock has fallen since Endgame.

Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday – which movie are you more excited for, and which will you be seeing on December 18th? Leave a comment below and join the conversation now in the ComicBook Forum!