Hollywood Skeptical That Box Office May Not Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels Until 2025

Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic began its global spread in 2020, Hollywood’s expectations for feature film box office has changed dramatically. The highest grossing movie that year was Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie, bringing in $500 million in 2020 (77% of its box office coming from Japan alone), and no movie crossed the billion dollar mark, something that hadn’t happened since 2007 and which occurred with nine movies in the year prior, 2019. This year has seen things bounce back in a big way, three movies have crossed the $1 billion mark at the global box office, but some Hollywood insiders think things won’t be back to “normal” again for three more years.

A new exposé on Deadline about box office trends cites unnamed “film distribution and exhibition” sources who note that box office “normalcy” may not return until “either 2024 or 2025,” already writing off the potential for 2023 as a whole. Part of this isn’t necessarily that the quality of the movies being released isn’t up to snuff, but that the quantity of movies being released theatrically won’t match pre-pandemic levels, nor will they bring missing audiences.

Blockbusters will always be a huge thing for studios, but exhibitors are also eager for more adult-focused movies that can bring back a segment of the audience that hasn’t returned in full just yet. Theaters are also still battling with streamers and their original content, in part where that audience may have shifted their gaze thanks to easy access and price. Even with all that said, and the line of thinking by some that box office won’t be “normal,” there’s still a few movies next year that could be big performers. Let’s examine below and consider the next two years, which have bene targeted as the “normal” target.

(Cover photo by icholakov via Getty Images/iStockphoto)

Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania

The previous Ant-Man movies were big summer movie releases, arriving on the heels of huge Avengers titles to boot. The lead-up to Quantumania is recent hit Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, which is always helpful for something like the Marvel brand to have with another title; but opening in February presents a unique challenge for the three-quel. The two previous Ant-Man movies opened to $57 million and $75 million respectively, with only three movies in February ever opening to higher than $100 million. That said what used to be a dumping ground is now a decent release month, with hits like Sonic the Hedgehog and Black Panther bringing in a lot of cash.

Shazam! Fury of the Gods

The first Shazam! brought in over $140 million domestically and over $220 million internationally with an April release in 2019. It’s upcoming sequel could very well benefit from its March release date, though competition at the time could prove difficult for it. Two things to keep an eye on about Shazam! Fury of the Gods’ success is two-fold: How it will fare compared to Black Adam after the two movies have been pretty publicly separated, despite their comic book connectivity; and how its box office will fare given recent shifts at DC, despite the general public not really following that. Good word of mouth for families could make this a hit.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Both of the previous Guardians movies had very high box office returns, with the third film getting the coveted first summer weekend slot on Friday, May 3. Nine of the top 10 biggest opening weekends in the month of May are Marvel movies, with 2022’s Top Gun: Maverick being the only outlier with $126 million. Guardians 3 seems poised to knock it out of that Top 10 though, and could very well become the highest grossing movie of the year.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse

The highly-anticipated sequel is arriving in a part of the summer that happens to be between other superhero tentpoles and without ANY animated family movies (Pixar’s Elemental opens two weeks later). These things could lead to the film having a breakout time at the box office, especially with the high of Spider-Man: No Way Home still lingering with some audience members.

The Flash

Troubling headlines about its star and an uncertainty about its place in the larger tableau of DC moving forward paint a grim portrait for The Flash’s box office potential. It does have a prime middle of June release date, one that has worked for other movies in the past, but no DC movie has opened higher than $67 million since 2018.

The Marvels

Captain Marvel’s billion-dollar box office haul happened as a result of being one of the MCU movies release between Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame, but also because it was the first female-lead MCU movie. The real test for The Marvels will be in seeing if it gets a boost of any kind from being not only a sequel to Captain Marvel and other MCU movies. All that combined could bring the sequel to a high place, we suspect it will come in higher than Ant-Man but below Guardians 3.

Kraven the Hunter

It’s really hard to consider at this point if Kraven will be the next Venom or the next Morbius. An October release date is a good spot for it though, and shots confidence by the studio in what they have. Don’t expect it to land in the Top 10 for the year, but the 10th month of the year currently looks anemic and could see a rise if the movie is popular.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

The Christmas box office is now a critical window for blockbusters and Aquaman is slated to be the big winner next year. If it’s able to match the billion dollar gross of the first film though it will perhaps be thanks to the international audiences, which made up 80% of the first film’s global tally.

2024

Here’s what the 2024 comic book slate looks like:

January 12 El Muerto – Sony Pictures
February 16 Madame Web – Sony Pictures
March 29 Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse – Sony Pictures
May 3 Captain America: New World Order – Marvel Studios
July 26 Thunderbolts – Marvel Studios
September 6 Blade – Marvel Studios
November 8 Untitled Deadpool Movie – Marvel Studios

A new Captain America movie and Deadpool will no doubt be HUGE for 2024, but Sony’s middling offerings by comparison, and no clue what DC could release, really makes it hard to say if it will really be bigger than next year.

2025

Here’s what 2025 currently looks like, with only Marvel Studios releases currently scheduled:

February 14 Fantastic Four – Marvel Studios
May 2 Avengers: The Kang Dynasty – Marvel Studios
July 25 Untitled Marvel Movie – Marvel Studios
November 7 Untitled Marvel Movie – Marvel Studios

A new Avengers movie all but guarantees a huge year, and one that will even lift their other titles up by virtue of just existing.