Moviegoing habits have changed dramatically over the years, but one box office rule remains true: never bet against James Cameron. The Oscar-winning blockbuster auteur has cemented himself as the king of the box office, as three of his films (which were released in three different decades) grossed more than $2 billion worldwide. Only seven movies in history have earned that much, and Cameron accounts for nearly half of them. So, when Avatar: Fire and Ash was gearing up for its premiere over the holiday season, the expectation was that it would become one of the highest-grossing films of 2025. Though the threequel is behind the pace of its predecessor, Avatar: The Way of Water, it’s still proven to be a sizable draw, helping Cameron make more box office history.
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According to Variety, Avatar: Fire and Ash has now passed the $1 billion milestone. As of this writing, its domestic total stands at $306 million, with another $771.1 million coming from international markets. That means its worldwide haul is $1.083 billion. With this, Cameron becomes the first director in history to helm four $1 billion movies. Fire and Ash accomplished this feat in 18 days.
Can Avatar: Fire and Ash Reach $2 Billion Worldwide?
Now that Fire and Ash has reached the $1 billion threshold, the question becomes whether or not it can join the other Avatar movies in the $2 billion club. Working in its favor is the fact that it won’t be facing much high-profile competition over the course of January (which traditionally is a slow month for new releases). While there are notable titles coming out such as the Chris Pratt vehicle Mercy and the Sam Raimi horror flick Send Help, there isn’t anything on the level of a four-quadrant sci-fi blockbuster from one of the industry’s most iconic directors. The first two Avatar films had incredible legs and stayed atop the charts for weeks, which is how they were able to hit $2 billion. Fire and Ash could follow suit.
One potential issue is that Fire and Ash‘s legs may not be as strong when compared to its predecessors — particularly at the domestic box office. Through 18 days, Avatar: The Way of Water had earned $446.9 million, so there’s quite a gap for Fire and Ash to make up on that front. Even if Fire and Ash continues to hold on to the No. 1 position at the domestic box office for the next few weeks, the chances of it catching The Way of Water are slim. International box office is more important than domestic in this case, but every dollar helps, and if Fire and Ash keeps lagging behind The Way of Water in any metric, then it might fall short of $2 billion.
That wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it’ll still be interesting to see if the Fire and Ash box office has any impact on Cameron’s future plans for the Avatar franchise. On more than one occasion, he has mentioned that he’ll be keeping a close eye on the profit margin to determine when he moves forward with Avatar 4. Obviously, $1 billion isn’t anything to sneeze at, but the Avatar films are still massively expensive productions. The Fire and Ash production budget was somewhere between $350-400 million, meaning it needed to break the bank just to break even. If Fire and Ash is less profitable than the other films, Cameron might take a break as he figures out more efficient ways to realize his vision or give the audience time to miss the franchise. Fire and Ash also has the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score in the Avatar series, suggesting the novelty is wearing off.
Regardless of what Cameron decides to do with Avatar 4, the Fire and Ash theatrical run ensures Disney gets to end the year on a high note. Funnily enough, for all the hand wringing done about the Mouse House’s box office performance in 2025, the studio still ended up with the only three Hollywood releases to gross over $1 billion worldwide. Disney still needs to figure out ways to get brands like Marvel and Pixar back on track after some infamous disappointments, but the dynamic duo of Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash makes those bombs a little easier to swallow. If Disney has its way, Cameron could be making a return trip to Pandora sooner rather than later.
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