Joker 2 Tracking to Open Within Range of The Flash and The Marvels at the Box Office

Joker: Folie á Deux won’t be putting on a happy face at the box office. Following negative reviews and poor word-of-mouth, the Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga-fronted jukebox musical and courtroom drama is pacing to open below industry expectations when it waltzes into theaters on Oct. 4. According to the forecasting and analytic website Box Office Theory, Joker 2 is projected to gross anywhere between $44 million to $57 million in its domestic debut in 4,000 U.S. theaters this weekend. Initial forecasts in September had the Joker sequel potentially looking at $70 million — but that number dropped to $50 million to $60 million in recent days, which would be about half of the $96 million that the first film earned when it scored the biggest October opening of all time in 2019.

If Box Office Theory‘s forecast is correct, a sub-$60 million opening weekend would put Joker 2 on par with the first Joker‘s second weekend ($55.8 million), which is the eighth-best October weekend of all time. Should it come in on the higher end of projections at $57 million, that would be below 2022’s Black Adam, Dwayne Johnson’s DC movie that took in $67 million over the Oct. 21 weekend despite a similar Rotten Tomatoes score (Black Adam‘s 39% versus Joker 2‘s 40% “rotten”).

The lower end of projections would put Joker 2 within range of DC’s The Flash, which got off to a slow start with $55 million before ending its run with $266 million at the global box office, and Marvel Studios’ The Marvels, which flopped with a worldwide total of just $199 million after a franchise-low opening weekend of $46 million. $1 billion is now out of reach for Joker 2, which could join the list of films to flop despite its predecessor reaching the milestone (a list that includes 2016’s Alice Through the Looking Glass, Captain Marvel sequel The Marvels, and 2023’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom).

Joker 2 is eyeing a $140 million global start against a reported costly price tag of $190 million, according to Deadline, far below the almost $250 million worldwide weekend gross of 2019’s Joker. The $70 million-budgeted movie was the first R-rated movie to cross the billion mark and, until Marvel’s Deadpool & Wolverine this summer, was the highest-grossing R-rated movie of all time. Joker‘s $1.079 billion box office reportedly netted a profit of $437 million for partner studios WarnerBros. Pictures, Bron Creative, and Village Roadshow Pictures.

Joker: Folie À Deux — starring Joaquin Phoenix as Arthur Fleck and Lady Gaga as Harleen “Lee” Quinzel, with Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) as Jackie Sullivan, Catherine Keener (Get Out) as Maryanne Stewart, Zazie Beetz (Deadpool 2) as Sophie Dumond, Steve Coogan (the Alan Partridge comedies) as Paddy Meyers, and Harry Lawtey (The Pale Blue Eye) as Harvey Dent — opens only in theaters on Friday.