This year has seen multiple Stephen King adaptations receive critical acclaim, but none of those films were able to parlay that response into a substantial box office run. Of the three King movies released so far in 2025, The Monkey was the top earner domestically with $39.7 million, leading The Long Walk ($35.1 million) and The Life of Chuck ($6.7 million). Before 2025 comes to a close, there’s one more King adaptation looking to make a bigger splash at the multiplex. This weekend sees the release of Edgar Wright’s take on The Running Man, which has been sold as a crowd-pleasing action romp throughout its marketing campaign. Box office projections are in, and it looks like The Running Man will be the king of the King adaptations – at least commercially.
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According to Variety, The Running Man is estimated to earn somewhere between $20-25 million domestically in its opening weekend. That would give it the biggest debut for a King movie this year, topping the $14 million posted by The Monkey back in February. There’s a chance The Running Man could set a new career high for an Edgar Wright opening (beating Baby Driver, $20.5 million). Coincidentally, the projections are identical to this week’s other new arrival Now You See Me: Now You Don’t. Both will be attempting to dethrone Predator: Badlands from the top spot. After breaking box office records in its debut, Badlands is projected to gross $18-20 million in its second frame.
Can The Running Man Exceed Box Office Projections?
One of the more notable box office trends this year has been films surpassing their estimates. Across various genres, multiple movies so far have performed better than expected, most recently Predator: Badlands. Going into its opening weekend, the latest installment in the Predator franchise was projected to earn around $25 million, but it blew past that and brought in $40 million. It’ll be interesting to see if The Running Man can pull off a similar feat, but there are some factors working against it as it gears up for its debut.
For starters, The Running Man reviews are far more mixed than people might expect for an Edgar Wright movie. While the reception isn’t overtly negative, the general consensus is that the film is not as strong as it could have been given the talent attached. Its Rotten Tomatoes score ranks as the lowest of Wright’s career (64%), and this word of mouth could have an impact on The Running Man‘s box office prospects. In contrast, Predator: Badlands was very well-received, earning high marks for being an interesting expansion of the franchise’s mythology. It seems to have more of a “must-see” factor than The Running Man. The reviews were a main reason why Predator: Badlands broke records.
The Running Man is also facing some stout competition this weekend. Whereas Badlands arrived in theaters on the heels of the worst October in recent memory, The Running Man will have to deal with not just Predator (which should hold well) but also Now You See Me: Now You Don’t. The previous two installments in the franchise grossed $117.7 million and $65 million total domestically, respectively. Neither was a massive earner, but there’s still an audience for the magical hijinks. If The Running Man was the lone high-profile title on the market this weekend, it’d have a better chance of beating the estimates, but it’s one of a few vying for audiences’ attention.
Budgeted at $110 million, The Running Man could be on shaky ground as it begins its theatrical run. Though he’s a fan-favorite director, Wright has never been a major draw at the box office. The highest-grossing film of his career is Baby Driver with $107.8 million domestically, and that was the beneficiary of enthusiastic reviews praising it for its inventive action sequences. The Running Man has not generated that kind of passion, but perhaps the King connection and Glen Powell (who has some hits under his belt) will be enough to encourage people to check it out.
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