Latest Thunderbolts* Box Office Projections Are Just What Marvel Needed

Thunderbolts* is shaping up to have strong legs at the box office. According to Deadline, the latest installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is projected to gross around $35 million domestically during its second weekend. Not only is that figure good enough for Thunderbolts* to repeat as box office champion, it’s just a 53% drop from its opening. That is one of the best holds for any MCU film; Deadline notes a 53% decrease would rank as the eighth best in the entire franchise (which spans 36 films to date). By weekend’s end, Thunderbolts* should pass the $130 million mark in the U.S.

The rest of the top five this weekend looks like it will be dominated by holdovers. In second place is Sinners with $22 million. A Minecraft Movie comes in third with $8.8 million, The Accountant 2 is in fourth with $6.1 million, and new release Clown in a Cornfield comes in fifth with $3.9 million domestically.

Heading into its premiere in early May, Thunderbolts* was always projected to have a soft opening (by Marvel standards). It performed in line with those expectations during its first weekend, grossing $74.3 million domestically. The Thunderbolts* opening was actually lower than Captain America: Brave New World‘s three-day start from mid-February ($88.8 million), but because Thunderbolts* earned a much more positive reception, there was optimism it would hold well.

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Brave New World received mixed reviews, which hurt its long-term box office prospects. It posted one of the steepest second weekend declines in MCU history (68.3%) and started a fall down the charts. Brave New World ended its run as one of the lowest-grossing MCU installments, making it the latest entry in the Multiverse Saga to underwhelm critically and at the box office.

Following the Avengers: Doomsday cast reveal, Thunderbolts* took on a greater sense of importance in the larger Multiverse Saga story. Several of the film’s stars are reprising their roles in next year’s Doomsday, and the Thunderbolts* post-credits scene implies they’ll have a significant role to play. With that in mind, Marvel needed Thunderbolts* to be a well-received hit. If the film and these characters didn’t resonate with fans, Doomsday would be facing another hurdle to clear. While Thunderbolts* isn’t going to go down as one of the MCU’s highest-grossing films, it’s nice to see it have strong legs at the box office. It shows that when Marvel makes a well-liked movie, people will still turn up for it. Thunderbolts*’ somewhat weaker debut was probably a byproduct of feelings around the larger MCU and not a reflection on the film itself.

It was vital for Thunderbolts* to post a strong hold during its second weekend. There’s stiff box office competition on the horizon in the form of Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, both of which open over Memorial Day weekend. It’s expected that potent one-two punch will help the box office break records over the holiday frame, so Thunderbolts* needed to take advantage of a weaker marketplace while it had a chance. It should be in position to have another healthy weekend next week before the heavy hitters arrive, giving Marvel the rebound it needed to start the summer.