Doctor Strange Tracking for Lower Opening Weekend Than Thor: The Dark World

Doctor Strange hit the box office tracking this morning, and it's about as broad as can be, with a twenty million dollar range, looking to open between $55 million and $75 million. The low end of that would not place the movie in even the top 20 for opening weekends in November, while the high end would only place it at #13 overall, falling under the powerhouse of book movies (The Hunger Games, The Twilight Saga, and a few Harry Potter movies all came out in past Novembers, dominating the top 10).

What's more concerning for Marvel is that the film is tracking, at best, 10 million dollars under their last November release, Thor: The Dark World, which got $85.7 million in its opening weekend. This is meant to launch a new corner of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and Marvel would likely be disappointed to see it come in that low.

The good news, however, is that tracking is very early, and typically on a tentpole like this will grow in the three weeks between now and release. The relatively low tracking is also relatively high for this year's fall season so far, which has been down 10% from last year's box office haul in the domestic office. It's also getting the strongest interest from every demographic, so those numbers will grow.

In the grander picture of the MCU, if Doctor Strange comes in at or around the $85 million of Thor: The Dark World, or even just at the current high of $75 million, it will be the best of the first films sincd Iron Man. Cap's first movie and Thor's both came in at $65 million, and Ant-Man grabbed $57 mil in its first weekend.

Projections will get much closer in a week, and we'll know for sure in three weeks when Doctor Strange - and Marvel Universe Movie Magic - debuts in theaters.

Doctor Strange is directed by Scott Derrickson. Starring Benedict Cumberbatch as the titular character who becomes the Sorcerer Supreme and Mads Mikkelsen as the villainous Kaecilius, Doctor Strange has over an hour of IMAX footage, which should help boost its opening considerably, and a runtime of 1 hour 55 minutes. Connections to the larger MCU and the future with an Avengers: Infinity War lead-in should help boost things after the opening weekend, as well. Disney kicks off a release every three weeks with its opening, with Moana then Rogue One: A Star Wars Story coming directly after Strange.