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In each of the last twelve years, at least one film has opened over the holiday weekend that rivaled the all-time best Independence Day openers, but this week sees only two new movies in wide release — the Melissa McCarthy-driven road comedy Tammy and Deliver Us From Evil, the latest from Doctor Strange director Scott Derrickson — and neither is expected to crack $25 million for the three-day weekend.
The $24 million Tammy is expected to generate this weekend would drop it at the #25 spot all time, below 2009’s Public Enemies but displacing Mel Gibson’s 2000 action-drama The Patriot.
Deliver Us From Evil, expected to make around $20 million, will then have to work to catch up to Scary Movie 2 — one of a pair of 2001 films currently holding down the #28 and #29 spot on the all-time list (the other is Cats vs. Dogs) with $20.5 million.
The weak openings don’t necessarily mean the worst box office performance in recent years; after all, Transformers; Age of Extinction is expected to take #1 this weekend with more than $40 million, which should help the box office along to respectability. Still, the year has begun to lag behind 2013 in total revenue, and this weekend will illustrate that point nicely; last year, the top Fourth of July opener was Descpicable Me 2 with $83 million and The Lone Ranger came in at #2 with $29 million. Last year’s #3 movie, The Heat, may well outpace Tammy, likely setting off a discussion about McCarthy’s viability (a silly one; The Heat also had Sandra Bullock so it’s hardly an apples-to-apples conversation).
