Marvel’s Captain America: Brave New World Tracking to Open Within Range of The Winter Soldier at the Box Office

Captain America: Brave New World is preparing for takeoff at the box office. The Anthony Mackie-fronted Marvel Studios movie hit pre-release tracking service The Quorum and is projected to open with upwards of $95 million when it flies into theaters over Valentine’s Day/Presidents’ Day weekend on Feb. 14 (via Deadline). The projection, which has the 3-day anywhere between $86 million to $95 million, could exceed $100 million for the 4-day Friday—Monday through Presidents’ Day on Feb. 17. Advance tickets are expected to go on sale this Friday, Jan. 17.

Opening within the $95 million range would put Captain America 4 on par with 2014’s Captain America: The Winter Soldier, the espionage thriller which introduced Mackie’s Falcon and starred Chris Evans as the star-spangled Avenger opposite Sebastian Stan’s Winter Soldier, Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow, and Samuel L. Jackson’s Nick Fury. The second installment of the Captain America franchise took in $95 million from nearly 4,000 theaters when it opened during the MCU’s Phase 2 back in April 2014.

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That projected number is just below the $96.8 million second weekend of last summer’s R-rated Marvel movie Deadpool & Wolverine, and within range of 2014’s Guardians of the Galaxy ($94.3 million), 2017’s Justice League ($93.8 million), and 2019’s Spider-Man: Far From Home ($92.5 million). To compare to previous installments of the Cap franchise, the 2011 first installment, Captain America: The First Avenger, opened with $65 million, while 2016’s superhero ensemble Captain America: Civil War scored a franchise-best opening of $179 million in May of that year. (That film co-starred Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man and featured the debuts of Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther and Tom Holland’s Spider-Man in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.)

After inheriting the shield and mantle from Evans’ retired Steve Rogers in 2019’s Avengers: Endgame and then embracing his new identity in 2021’s Disney+ series The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, Mackie’s first feature as Captain America is looking to score the fifth-best February opening of all time.

Black Panther, the first Marvel film to feature a Black superhero in a titular role, has held the record for biggest February opening ($202 million) and the biggest-ever Feb. second weekend ($111 million) since 2018, giving it the No. 1 and No. 3 spots for the month. At No. 2 on the domestic list is 2016’s Deadpool ($132 million); No. 4 is 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($106 million); and at No. 5 is 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey ($85.1 million), the only non-comic book movie in the top 5 for February domestic openings.

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The film’s promotional partners include McDonald’s and Tide Detergent, and trailers have featured Kendrick Lamar’s “N95.” Marvel Comics has also launched the MCU-inspired comic book series Sam Wilson: Captain America, pitting the star-spangled superhero against the Robert Maverick Red Hulk (rather than Thaddeus Ross); Ross’ Rulk will star in the new Red Hulk series launching on Feb. 26.

In addition, the Sam Wilson Captain America will feature on Marvel’s Black History Month variant cover series (alongside T’Challa, X-Factor’s Frenzy, Wakanda’s Gold Tiger from the New Champions, Miles Morales, and Temper and Storm of the X-Men), all-new anthology novel Captain America: The Shield of Sam Wilson (out Jan. 14), and picture book A Hero Looks Like You, which is set in the world of the movie.

Per the synopsis, “After meeting with newly elected U.S. President Thaddeus Ross (Harrison Ford), Sam finds himself in the middle of an international incident. He must discover the reason behind a nefarious global plot before the true mastermind has the entire world seeing red.” Julius Onah (The Cloverfield Paradox) directs the Kevin Feige-produced film, which also stars Danny Ramirez, Shira Haas, Xosha Roquemore, Carl Lumbly, with Giancarlo Esposito, Liv Tyler, and Tim Blake Nelson as the Leader. Captain America: Brave New World opens only in theaters Feb. 14.